Trump threatens NATO over Iran, as oil hits $106

President Trump warns of 'very bad' consequences if NATO allies don't help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as oil prices surge amid the ongoing conflict.

Mar. 16, 2026 at 11:20am

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President Trump has threatened 'very bad' consequences for NATO if the alliance's members don't send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been partially closed off by Iran. The rising oil prices, which have reached $106 per barrel, are driving up costs across the global economy, from fertilizer to consumer goods. Analysts warn that a protracted conflict could further disrupt the world economy.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint for oil shipments, and Iran's control over the strait gives it significant leverage in the ongoing conflict. Trump's threats against NATO highlight the growing tensions and the potential for the conflict to escalate, with far-reaching economic consequences.

The details

Iran has allowed some tanker traffic through the strait but has also threatened to block it entirely. The U.S. and its allies have been unable to gain full access for Western-allied vessels. Experts warn that if Iran effectively mines the strait, it would be extremely difficult for the U.S. to clear the mines under fire. Trump is increasingly blaming the media for coverage of the conflict, as his poll numbers decline and his MAGA supporters grow frustrated.

  • The Pentagon believes the current mission could be completed in 4-6 weeks, but analysts warn the conflict could extend into the second quarter of 2026 or become even more protracted.
  • Oil prices have surged to $106 per barrel, up from around $70 before the conflict began.

The players

President Trump

The President of the United States, who has threatened 'very bad' consequences for NATO if the alliance's members don't help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran

The country that currently controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil shipments, and has threatened to block the strait entirely.

NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an alliance of countries that Trump is pressuring to send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Caitlin Talmadge

A political science professor at MIT who has warned that if Iran effectively mines the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. response options would be 'suboptimal'.

Antonio Gabriel

An analyst at Bank of America who believes a more protracted war 'cannot be ruled out', despite markets pricing in a 'largely transitory shock'.

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What they’re saying

“If there's no response or if it's a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”

— President Trump

“Historically, mine clearance has been slow, and it is almost impossible to do under fire. In short, if Iran effectively mines the strait, all U.S. response options are suboptimal.”

— Caitlin Talmadge, MIT political science professor

“While a quick resolution to the conflict is certainly a possibility, we view the conflict extending into 2Q as an equally likely outcome, and a more protracted war cannot be ruled out. However, markets seem to be pricing a largely transitory shock.”

— Antonio Gabriel, Analyst

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.