Trump Seeks to Recoup $1.6 Trillion in Tariff Revenue

Administration launches new investigations to impose replacement duties after Supreme Court ruling

Mar. 15, 2026 at 8:56pm

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The Trump administration is launching new investigations under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act in an effort to replace about $1.6 trillion in tariff revenue that was eliminated by a Supreme Court decision striking down a range of the president's import taxes. The new approach will make it easier for companies to seek exemptions, but the administration is aiming to complete the investigations before the temporary 10% tariff it imposed expires.

Why it matters

Recovering the lost tariff revenue is crucial for the White House, which was counting on that money to help offset the steep cost of its tax cuts. The administration sees tariffs as a way to force foreign countries to help pay for U.S. government services, even though studies show American companies and consumers bear the burden of the duties.

The details

The administration will investigate 16 economies, including the EU, China, South Korea, and Japan, over whether their governments are subsidizing excessive factory capacity. It will also probe dozens of countries to see if their failure to ban goods made by forced labor amounts to an unfair trade practice. Both investigations will take months and allow for public hearings and industry comments, a far cry from the emergency powers Trump used earlier.

  • The factory capacity investigation hearing will be held on May 5.
  • The forced labor investigation hearing will occur on April 28.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president who is seeking to replace about $1.6 trillion in lost tariff revenue that was eliminated by the Supreme Court's decision to strike down a range of his import taxes.

Jamieson Greer

The U.S. Trade Representative who announced the new investigations into factory capacity subsidies and forced labor.

Elena Patel

The co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center who said the new approach will "make it easier for people to contest the tariffs, which is going to put a big asterisk on the revenue until all that is settled."

Erica York

The vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation who noted the "breadth suggests the goal isn't to address the issues at hand, but instead to recreate a sweeping tariff tool."

Kent Smetters

The executive director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model who said "What makes this really different, it is really the first time tariffs have been mainly used as a revenue raiser."

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What they’re saying

“I wouldn't bet against this administration being able to get back on paper the same effective tariff rate they had before.”

— Elena Patel, Co-director, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center

“That breadth suggests the goal isn't to address the issues at hand, but instead to recreate a sweeping tariff tool.”

— Erica York, Vice President of Federal Tax Policy, Tax Foundation

“What makes this really different, it is really the first time tariffs have been mainly used as a revenue raiser.”

— Kent Smetters, Executive Director, Penn Wharton Budget Model

What’s next

The administration is aiming to complete its Section 301 investigations before the 10% duties it imposed expire after 150 days.

The takeaway

The Trump administration's heavy reliance on tariffs as a revenue-raising tool, rather than a targeted trade policy measure, represents a significant shift from previous administrations and raises questions about the long-term viability and fairness of this approach.