Why I'm Still Expecting Double-Digit Gains This Year, Despite Recent Volatility

AI skepticism and the Iran conflict have weighed on stocks so far in 2026, but Kevin Matras believes these pressures are only short-term.

Mar. 14, 2026 at 3:14am

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After a strong start to the market in 2026, recent events in the Middle East have weighed on stocks, and simultaneously sent the price of oil sharply higher. However, Matras believes the recent volatility in AI names is nothing more than some long overdue profit taking after heady gains, and that the ongoing AI boom, along with other factors like tamer inflation, the resiliency of the economy, surging productivity, and the expectation for lower interest rates, will lead to another year of big gains for the market.

Why it matters

The tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 had lagged this year on concerns over AI Capital Expenditures, but Matras argues that the AI boom is still in the relatively early stages and has years more to go. He believes the winners will multiply as the cycle moves through its stages, from the infrastructure phase to the tools and models phase and the application and productivity phase.

The details

Matras points to comments from AMD CEO Lisa Su and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang that underscore the scale and potential of the AI market. He also notes that the amount of investment in AI will dwarf that of the dot-com era, and the unprecedented spending and innovation is expected to last for years to come. Additionally, Matras cites a productivity boom, with nonfarm business productivity rising at a 2.8% annual rate in Q4'25, as well as an easing of inflation and the expectation for lower interest rates as other factors supporting his bullish outlook.

  • The last Consumer Price Index (CPI, retail inflation) report showed core inflation (ex-food & energy) at 2.5% y/y, down from 3.3% earlier last year.
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge), came in at 3.1%, a bit above last year's 3.0%, but well off the highs of 5.4% just a few short years ago.
  • The Fed cut interest rates 3 times last year and they've maintained their outlook for another rate cut this year.

The players

Lisa Su

The CEO of AMD, who characterized the demand for AI as 'insatiable' and said her company alone could grow by 35% a year for the next 3-5 years because of that.

Jensen Huang

The CEO of NVIDIA, who said 'AI is the most powerful technology force of our time' and 'AI will revolutionize every industry, from healthcare to transportation.'

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What they’re saying

“AI is the most powerful technology force of our time.”

— Jensen Huang, CEO, NVIDIA

“AI will revolutionize every industry, from healthcare to transportation.”

— Jensen Huang, CEO, NVIDIA

“We are at the beginning of a new computing era.”

— Jensen Huang, CEO, NVIDIA

“The AI market is "faster than anything we've seen before" and the AI data center market could grow to '$1 trillion' by 2030.”

— Lisa Su, CEO, AMD

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.