Trump Seeks to Recoup $1.6 Trillion in Lost Tariff Revenue

Administration launches new investigations to impose replacement duties on imports

Mar. 14, 2026 at 5:03pm

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The Trump administration is launching a series of new trade investigations in an effort to replace about $1.6 trillion in lost tariff revenue that was eliminated by a Supreme Court decision striking down many of the president's import taxes. The investigations will cover subsidized factory capacity and goods made by forced labor in dozens of countries, allowing the administration to potentially impose new duties under different legal provisions.

Why it matters

Recovering the lost tariff revenue is crucial for the White House, which was counting on that money to help offset the steep costs of the president's tax cuts. However, the new approach will make it easier for companies to contest the tariffs, potentially limiting the revenue they generate.

The details

The administration is launching investigations under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, which requires consulting with targeted countries, holding public hearings, and allowing affected U.S. industries to comment. This is a far cry from the emergency powers Trump used in his first year to quickly impose tariffs. The investigations will cover the EU, China, South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Canada, Australia, and Brazil, among others.

  • The administration will hold a hearing on the factory capacity investigation on May 5.
  • A hearing on the forced labor investigation will occur on April 28.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president who relied heavily on tariffs as a revenue-raising tool, including to help offset the costs of his tax cuts.

Jamieson Greer

The U.S. Trade Representative who announced the new investigations into subsidized factory capacity and goods made by forced labor.

Elena Patel

The co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center who argues that raising revenue through tariffs is not the intended use of laws like Section 301.

Erica York

The vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation who notes the broad scope of the new investigations suggests the goal is to recreate a "sweeping tariff tool".

Kent Smetters

The executive director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model who says this is the first time tariffs have been "mainly used as a revenue raiser".

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What they’re saying

“I wouldn't bet against this administration being able to get back on paper the same effective tariff rate they had before.”

— Elena Patel, Co-director, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center

“That breadth suggests the goal isn't to address the issues at hand, but instead to recreate a sweeping tariff tool.”

— Erica York, Vice President of Federal Tax Policy, Tax Foundation

“What makes this really different, it is really the first time tariffs have been mainly used as a revenue raiser.”

— Kent Smetters, Executive Director, Penn Wharton Budget Model

What’s next

The administration is aiming to complete its Section 301 investigations before the 10% tariffs imposed after the Supreme Court ruling expire in 150 days.

The takeaway

The Trump administration's heavy reliance on tariffs as a revenue-raising tool, rather than for their traditional use of addressing specific trade policy concerns, represents a significant shift in how import duties are being utilized in the U.S.