New Study Finds 90% Of Sea Level Research Relies On Models, Not Real Measurements

Researchers analyzed 385 studies and found most used assumptions from models rather than actual coastal observations.

Mar. 13, 2026 at 12:35pm

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A new study has found that the vast majority of research on sea level rise - around 90% - has relied on computer models and assumptions rather than real-world measurements of coastal water levels. The report's authors say this 'methodological blind spot' has resulted in widespread underestimations of how high sea levels already are and how many people are at risk from coastal hazards.

Why it matters

This revelation raises serious questions about the reliability of much of the existing research on sea level rise and its impacts. If the science is based primarily on models rather than direct observations, it calls into doubt the accuracy of projections about future sea level rise and the threats it poses to coastal communities around the world.

The details

The study analyzed 385 peer-reviewed studies on sea level rise published over the past 15 years. The researchers found that 90% of these studies used only model-based assumptions rather than actual measurements of coastal water levels. This 'methodological blind spot' has led to widespread underestimations of how high sea levels already are and how many people are at risk from coastal hazards. For example, the researchers estimate that if sea levels rise by around 3 feet, it would put 37% more land underwater than currently assumed, affecting up to 132 million people globally.

  • The study was published on March 13, 2026.

The players

Philip Minderhoud

The study's co-author, who says the findings reveal a 'methodological blind spot' in sea level rise research.

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What they’re saying

“It's a 'methodological blind spot' that has resulted in widespread underestimations of coastal sea levels and people's exposure to their related hazards.”

— Philip Minderhoud, Study co-author (Climate Change Dispatch)

The takeaway

This study raises serious doubts about the reliability of much of the existing research on sea level rise, which appears to be based more on computer models than real-world observations. It suggests the scientific community may need to re-evaluate its approach and focus more on direct measurements of coastal water levels to get a more accurate picture of the threats posed by rising seas.