Prediction Markets Face Competition from 'Super Apps'

Industry experts predict a convergence of finance, gaming, and social media apps that could challenge standalone prediction markets

Published on Mar. 12, 2026

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The gambling industry is abuzz with talk of "super apps" - mobile apps that combine multiple services like messaging, payments, social media, and more into a single platform. Investors and industry figures believe these "super apps" could pose a major challenge to standalone prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have poured millions into marketing. Robinhood, in particular, is seen as having an edge in building an "everything app" that could reduce fees on sports betting and use it as a way to attract younger users to generate revenue in other ways.

Why it matters

The rise of "super apps" could drastically increase competition in the prediction market space, forcing standalone platforms to spend heavily on customer acquisition and incentives to retain users. This could impact the long-term viability of prediction markets as a distinct industry, as they may become just one feature within larger multi-purpose apps.

The details

Prediction markets have seen a surge in popularity in recent years, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket aggressively marketing their services. However, industry figures believe the next big trend will be the rise of "super apps" - mobile apps that combine messaging, payments, social media, and other services into a single platform. Robinhood in particular is seen as having an edge in this race, with the investment app already offering banking services and hinting at the launch of a payments feature called "X Money." Experts predict these "super apps" could reduce fees on sports betting to zero and use it as a way to attract younger users who will then generate revenue through other services.

  • In early 2025, Robinhood and prediction market platform Kalshi announced a formal partnership.
  • Last fall, one analyst estimated that 25% to 35% of the money traded on Kalshi came from Robinhood users.
  • Last year, Robinhood and trading firm Susquehanna bought their own commodities exchange with plans to turn it into a new prediction market called Rothera.

The players

Roger Ehrenberg

An investor who spoke at the Next Summit gambling industry conference about the rise of "super apps."

Sam Bankman-Fried

The now-imprisoned crypto trader who once told investors his vision for FTX was a platform "where you can do anything you want with your next dollar."

Alex Kane

The founder of Sporttrade, a sports betting exchange active in New Jersey with plans to go nationwide.

Tarek Mansour

One of the co-founders of prediction market platform Kalshi, who has said the company's ambition is to "financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion."

Adhi Rajaprabhakaran

A former Kalshi trader who writes about prediction markets and believes sports bettors are "very provably price-insensitive."

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What they’re saying

“There's gonna be this massive convergence of Robinhood, Coinbase, and the gaming companies with super apps. That's the mega-trend I see.”

— Roger Ehrenberg, Investor (Next Summit)

“You can buy Bitcoin. You can buy a banana.”

— Sam Bankman-Fried (Business Insider)

“I recently moved my main banking relationship to Robinhood and they offered an incentive to refinance my mortgage there, too.”

— Alex Kane, Founder, Sporttrade (Next Summit)

“I think sports bettors are very provably price-insensitive. In fact, I think fees are going to increase over time.”

— Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, Former Kalshi Trader (Business Insider)

“It's impossible to ignore the prevalence and rise in prediction markets. In short, I don't think it's a passing fad.”

— Joseph Solosky, Managing Director for Sports Betting, NASCAR (Business Insider)

What’s next

Robinhood plans to launch its new prediction market platform called Rothera, which it acquired in a joint venture with trading firm Susquehanna last year.

The takeaway

The rise of "super apps" that combine multiple financial, social, and entertainment services into a single platform could pose a significant challenge to standalone prediction market platforms. This convergence of services could allow larger tech and finance companies to offer prediction markets at low or no cost as a way to attract and retain users, forcing standalone prediction market firms to spend heavily on customer acquisition and incentives to remain competitive.