New York's Spring Forecast Brings Mixed Bag of Weather

Forecasters and almanacs disagree on precipitation and temperature trends for the upcoming season

Published on Mar. 12, 2026

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Spring weather across New York could bring a mix of warmer temperatures and frequent rain, though forecasters and weather almanacs disagree on what the season will look like. The National Weather Service says much of the state could see above-average precipitation this spring, while temperature trends remain uncertain. Long-range outlooks from two well-known almanacs offer conflicting predictions, with the Old Farmer's Almanac forecasting a warmer-than-normal spring and the Farmers' Almanac predicting a cooler and wetter start to the season.

Why it matters

New Yorkers rely on accurate seasonal weather forecasts to plan their activities, prepare for potential severe weather, and make informed decisions about things like agriculture, outdoor events, and energy usage. The conflicting predictions from forecasters and almanacs create uncertainty and make it challenging for residents to know what to expect in the coming months.

The details

According to the National Weather Service, western New York has up to a 50% chance of above-average precipitation this spring, while central and northern parts of the state, including the Finger Lakes and Adirondacks, have a 33% to 40% chance of seeing more rain than normal. The Lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long Island have equal chances of seeing normal precipitation. Temperature forecasts are less clear, with the Weather Service saying New York currently has equal chances of experiencing warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal temperatures through early spring. The Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts a warmer-than-normal spring across New York, with temperatures expected to rise especially in May and below-average rainfall. In contrast, the Farmers' Almanac predicts a cooler and wetter start to the season across the Northeast, including New York.

  • The National Weather Service's seasonal outlook covers the spring season.
  • The Old Farmer's Almanac and Farmers' Almanac provide long-range forecasts for the upcoming spring season.

The players

National Weather Service

The federal agency responsible for weather forecasting and issuing weather-related warnings in the United States.

Old Farmer's Almanac

A long-running publication that provides long-range weather forecasts and other information, though its accuracy has been questioned by some researchers.

Farmers' Almanac

Another long-running publication that provides long-range weather forecasts, often with a focus on the needs of farmers and gardeners.

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The takeaway

The conflicting weather forecasts for New York's upcoming spring season highlight the challenges in making accurate long-range predictions, even for experienced forecasters and almanacs. Residents will need to closely monitor the weather as the season progresses to stay informed and prepared for the actual conditions that unfold.