Russia Gains as Iran War Disrupts Energy, US Eases Sanctions

Surging global energy prices and US policy shifts provide unexpected economic boost for Russia amid Ukraine conflict

Published on Mar. 11, 2026

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Russia is experiencing an unexpected economic boost as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy supplies, driving up demand for Russian exports. This comes despite severe Western sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which were initially estimated to cost Russia at least $500 billion. The Trump administration has issued waivers allowing countries like India to purchase Russian oil, aiming to ease demand for Middle Eastern oil. However, this move has drawn criticism, with some calling it 'traitorous conduct' given reports of Russia assisting Iran. The shift in global focus to the Middle East is also diverting attention and resources away from Ukraine, potentially allowing Russia to make gains in the conflict.

Why it matters

The energy crisis has exposed vulnerabilities in Europe's energy system, particularly its continued reliance on Russian fuel, even as the EU aims to end imports of Russian gas, oil, and LNG by late 2027. Experts predict that even a few weeks of disruption in Gulf energy supplies could result in a significant windfall for Russia, potentially providing it with increased geopolitical leverage.

The details

Disruptions to oil depots in Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven up global energy prices, creating a window of opportunity for Russia. The Trump administration has issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil, ostensibly to alleviate demand for Middle Eastern oil. Putin has acknowledged the shifting landscape, stating that Russia should 'take advantage of the current situation' to gain a foothold in markets needing increased supplies, including the Asia-Pacific region, Slovakia, and Hungary.

  • In March 2022, the U.S. and European nations levied severe sanctions on Russia.
  • On March 4, 2026, the White House issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil.

The players

Vladimir Putin

The president of Russia who has acknowledged the opportunity presented by the current energy crisis to gain a foothold in new markets.

Volodymyr Zelensky

The president of Ukraine who has expressed concern that Russia is 'trying to manipulate the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region to the benefit of their aggression' against Ukraine.

Ted Lieu

A California Representative who has criticized the Trump administration's decision to issue a waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil, labeling it 'traitorous conduct'.

Robert English

An international foreign policy expert at USC who believes Russia is 'winning the Iran-U.S.-Israel war, at least so far,' as soaring oil and natural gas prices replenish Putin's war chest.

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What they’re saying

“We must take advantage of the current situation.”

— Vladimir Putin

“Russia is trying to manipulate the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region to the benefit of their aggression.”

— Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine

“This is traitorous conduct.”

— Ted Lieu, California Representative (newsy-today.com)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.