Applications to U.S. Colleges Surge Despite Declining Perceptions

The number of college applications has risen significantly, but enrollment has only increased modestly, raising questions about who is applying and why.

Published on Mar. 11, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

While the percentage of Americans who consider college 'very important' has been cut in half since 2013, falling to just 35 percent, the number of applications that colleges are receiving has increased by nearly 54 percent over the past decade. Experts attribute much of this surge to students applying to more schools, rather than a significant increase in the total number of students. The rise in applications has created challenges for both families and college admissions officers, but several factors could calm the frenzy in the coming years.

Why it matters

The growing disconnect between perceptions of the value of higher education and the continued high demand for college applications highlights the complex and evolving landscape of American higher education. As the average cost of college has roughly doubled over the past three decades and concerns have risen about the return on investment, there is increasing pressure on colleges to demonstrate their value and adapt to changing student needs.

The details

The number of applications that colleges are receiving has risen by nearly 54 percent over the past decade, according to data from the National Center for Education Statistics. However, the total number of students enrolled in college has only increased by 8 percent over the same time period. Experts attribute much of the surge in applications to students applying to more schools, rather than a significant increase in the total number of students. This practice of applying to more schools comes with challenges for both families, who must contend with an increasingly expensive and overwhelming process, and for college admissions officers, who must do more guesswork over which students will actually enroll if offered spots.

  • In the fall of 2024, colleges received nearly 54 percent more applications than they did a decade prior.
  • The total number of students in college has actually declined since 2014.

The players

Jimmy Aguilar

A researcher at the University of Southern California.

Katharine Meyer

A fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“When we see the numbers, it's telling this positive story. But we don't know who those students are — are they the same students that we've been admitting already, who are just applying to more schools?”

— Jimmy Aguilar, Researcher (New York Times)

“In the coming years, several things could calm the frenzy: a decline in the number of high school graduates, a drop in the number of international students, and a potential recession that makes families more cautious about spending on college.”

— Katharine Meyer, Fellow (New York Times)

The takeaway

The surge in college applications despite declining perceptions of the value of higher education highlights the complex and evolving landscape of American higher education. As colleges face growing pressure to demonstrate their worth, they must adapt to changing student needs and find ways to make the application and enrollment process less fraught for both families and admissions officers.