Rising Oil Prices Poised to Hike Airfares

Experts warn travelers to book flights soon as Gulf conflict drives up fuel costs

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

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The spike in oil prices precipitated by the American and Israeli attack on Iran is rippling throughout global economies, leading to a sharp increase in the cost of operating planes. For travelers, that likely means higher airfares, with experts predicting airlines will quickly pass along those rising fuel expenses through ticket price hikes, fee increases, and other measures.

Why it matters

The disruptions, restrictions, and airspace closures in key Gulf aviation hubs like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha are likely to affect pricing and routing for international flights, pushing more traffic through Europe and tightening availability there. Budget airlines without premium cabins to offset costs will be hit the hardest, while major carriers may shift some of the fuel burden onto business and first-class passengers.

The details

Jet fuel prices have risen more than 58% as of March 6 compared to the previous week, according to the International Air Transport Association. Airlines have many ways to recoup these ballooning fuel expenses beyond a blanket ticket price increase, including charging more for premium seats, raising fees for services like checked bags, reducing the number of low-fare seats, consolidating flights, or adding fuel surcharges on international routes.

  • On February 28, the conflict in the Gulf began.
  • On March 6, jet fuel prices had risen more than 58% compared to the previous week.
  • On March 10, the price of oil rose to nearly $120 a barrel before settling back down to around $90.

The players

Scott Kirby

The chief executive of United Airlines, who said the effect of higher fuel costs on airfares would 'probably start quick'.

Henry H. Harteveldt

The president of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel research and advisory firm based in San Francisco.

Julian Kheel

The founder and chief executive of Points Path, a service that compares cash airfares to paying with points.

Scott Keyes

The founder of Going.com, a service devoted to finding cheap airfares.

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What they’re saying

“The second he said it, that gave airlines permission to increase fares.”

— Henry H. Harteveldt, President, Atmosphere Research Group (The New York Times)

“Budget airlines such as Spirit and Frontier are in the toughest position. Carriers with premium cabins have the option to shift some fuel costs onto business and first-class travelers, who are relatively insensitive to price increases. But low-cost carriers don't have that cushion, which means their passengers will bear the full brunt.”

— Julian Kheel, Founder and Chief Executive, Points Path (The New York Times)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.