Cocoa Prices Rise on Report of Large Export Purchases

Cocoa futures extended a 1.5-week rally amid concerns over shipping costs and supply disruptions.

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

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Cocoa futures prices rose sharply on Tuesday, with May ICE NY cocoa closing up 4.8% and May ICE London cocoa up 5.1%. The rally was fueled by a Reuters report that local grinders in Ivory Coast bought more than 400,000 metric tons of cocoa export contracts in the past 10 days, suggesting new demand is emerging after recent price cuts. Prices have also been supported by concerns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will boost shipping costs and limit cocoa exports.

Why it matters

The cocoa market has been volatile in recent months, with prices falling to multi-year lows on concerns about a global surplus, only to rebound on supply disruption fears. The latest rally highlights the sensitivity of the market to both demand and supply-side factors, which can have significant implications for cocoa producers, processors, and consumers.

The details

Cocoa prices have risen sharply in the past 1.5 weeks amid concerns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will boost shipping costs, curb cocoa exports, and limit supplies. Slowing cocoa deliveries to ports in Ivory Coast have also been supportive of prices. However, demand concerns have weighed on the market, with major chocolate makers reporting declines in sales volumes and cocoa grindings. Exports from Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest producer, have also been rising, adding to supply. On the bullish side, Ivory Coast projects its cocoa production to fall 10.8% in 2025/26, while Rabobank has cut its global surplus forecast for the same period.

  • On Tuesday, May ICE NY cocoa (CCK26) closed up +158 (+4.80%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) closed up +121 (+5.12%).
  • In the past 1-1/2 weeks, cocoa prices have rallied amid concerns over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Monday's cumulative data from Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 1.35 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through March 1, 2026), down -3.6% from 1.40 MMT in the same period a year ago.
  • Last Monday, May NY cocoa posted a contract low, and nearest-futures London cocoa (H26) fell to a 3-year low after the ICCO raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate.
  • In January, Barry Callebaut AG reported a -22% decline in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30.

The players

International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)

An intergovernmental organization that promotes cocoa production and consumption worldwide.

StoneX

A global financial services firm that provides market intelligence and analysis for the commodities industry.

Barry Callebaut AG

The world's largest bulk chocolate maker.

European Cocoa Association

An industry group representing European cocoa processors and traders.

Cocoa Association of Asia

An industry group representing Asian cocoa processors and traders.

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The takeaway

The cocoa market remains highly sensitive to both supply and demand factors, with concerns over shipping disruptions and weakening consumer demand driving significant price volatility. Producers, processors, and consumers will need to closely monitor these dynamics to navigate the evolving market conditions.