Middle East Conflict Threatens Global Food Supply

Disruptions to fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to shortages and price hikes worldwide.

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is poised to have a significant impact on global food production and prices. With the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for fertilizers produced in the region, effectively closed, farmers around the world may face shortages and be forced to use less fertilizer on their crops. This could lead to reduced crop yields and rising food costs, especially in vulnerable regions of the Global South.

Why it matters

The Middle East is a dominant source of the world's fertilizers, particularly nitrogen-based products that are essential for crop growth. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the disruption to fertilizer exports could trigger a global food crisis, with potentially severe consequences for food security and affordability, especially in developing nations that rely heavily on imported agricultural inputs.

The details

Five Middle Eastern countries - Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain - supply over a third of the world's urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly a quarter of global ammonia production. These fertilizers are typically shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed off amid the ongoing conflict. As a result, fertilizer prices have already spiked by over 35% in Egypt, a bellwether market, and farmers worldwide may be forced to use less of these essential crop nutrients, leading to reduced yields.

  • The conflict in the Middle East began in early 2026.
  • Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the conflict.

The players

Middle East

A dominant source of the world's fertilizers, particularly nitrogen-based products that are essential for crop growth.

Strait of Hormuz

A critical shipping route for fertilizers produced in the Middle East region.

Global South

Regions that rely heavily on imported agricultural inputs and may be severely impacted by rising food costs.

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What they’re saying

“The longer the conflict in the Middle East continues, the greater the likelihood that people around the globe will pay more for food. And those in the most vulnerable countries could face hunger.”

— Peter Goodman, Global Economics Reporter (The New York Times)

“The volumes are greater this time around, potentially, than in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. You've got multiple producing countries.”

— Commodities Expert (The New York Times)

What’s next

Governments in the Global South may need to subsidize the cost of growing crops to shield their farmers and populations from the rising food prices caused by the fertilizer shortage.

The takeaway

The conflict in the Middle East has far-reaching implications for global food security, highlighting the world's reliance on a small number of regions for critical agricultural inputs like fertilizers. This crisis underscores the need to diversify and strengthen the resilience of global food supply chains to mitigate the impacts of geopolitical disruptions.