Experts Warn Monthly Jobs Reports Unreliable Amid Demographic Shifts

Factors like illegal immigration and AI make traditional employment models less accurate, say analysts.

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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The latest jobs report showing a surprise net loss of 92,000 jobs was not as shocking as it seemed, experts say. With major demographic and technological changes underway, the traditional methods of measuring the US job market have become less reliable. Factors like the exodus of illegal immigrants and the rise of AI are making it harder to get an accurate picture of employment trends.

Why it matters

The shifting nature of the US workforce, driven by factors like immigration and automation, is rendering the government's standard jobs reporting less meaningful. This makes it harder for policymakers and businesses to make informed decisions about the economy.

The details

According to the Department of Homeland Security, around 3 million illegal immigrants have been deported or left the US voluntarily since President Trump's return to office in 2025. This significant population decrease has impacted the jobs market, with the Trump administration claiming native-born Americans are gaining jobs while foreigners are losing them. However, this claim has been disputed by some economists. Additionally, the impact of AI on jobs is still unclear, with layoffs at firms like Morgan Stanley attributed to both AI-driven redundancies and other factors.

  • The latest jobs report was released on March 8, 2026.
  • Since last summer, the Trump administration has been making claims about native-born Americans gaining jobs while foreigners lose them.

The players

Department of Homeland Security

The US government agency responsible for immigration enforcement, which has reported a decrease of around 3 million illegal immigrants in the country since 2025.

President Trump

The US president who returned to office in 2025 and has taken a hardline stance on immigration.

Morgan Stanley

A major financial services firm that recently announced 2,500 layoffs, which were attributed to both AI-driven redundancies and other factors.

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What they’re saying

“Anyone who tells you AI is a clear net positive or net negative for human jobs right now is just guessing.”

— Jake Novak, Host of the 77 WABC 5 AM News Hour Weekend Edition (wabcradio.com)

“The Trump administration has said native-born American citizens have been gaining jobs while foreigners (both legal and illegal immigrants) are losing them. Of course this claim has been disputed by liberal economists and left-leaning political pundits, which means we'll probably never get the full true story on this potential trend.”

— Jake Novak, Host of the 77 WABC 5 AM News Hour Weekend Edition (wabcradio.com)

What’s next

Experts will continue to monitor the impact of demographic and technological shifts on the US job market, as traditional employment models become less reliable.

The takeaway

The changing nature of the US workforce, driven by factors like immigration and automation, is making it increasingly difficult to accurately measure and interpret employment trends using the government's standard jobs reporting. This underscores the need for policymakers and businesses to adapt their decision-making to these evolving realities.