Polymarket Bettors Skeptical of Quick Iran Ceasefire

Prediction market data shows low odds of U.S.-Iran ceasefire by end of March.

Published on Mar. 5, 2026

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Bettors on the Polymarket prediction platform see only a 24% chance that the U.S. and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement by the end of March, according to data from the platform. This is down significantly from the initial 60% probability assessed shortly after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Saturday, as the fighting has continued.

Why it matters

The Polymarket data provides insight into how the financial markets are assessing the likelihood and timeline of a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which could have major geopolitical and economic implications depending on the duration of the conflict.

The details

After the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Polymarket bettors initially saw a greater than 60% chance of a ceasefire by March 31. However, as the fighting has continued and President Trump has projected the operation could last 4-5 weeks, the probability of a March ceasefire has dropped to just 24%. The platform's contracts on a ceasefire have drawn over $12 million in trading volume across all available expiration dates, with the probability of a ceasefire climbing to 45% by the end of April and over 60% by the end of May.

  • Shortly after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Saturday, bettors assessed the probability of a ceasefire by March 31 at above 60%.
  • Now, bettors see a 24% chance of a halt to fighting by March 31.
  • The probability of a ceasefire climbs to 45% by the end of next month and above 60% by the end of May.

The players

Polymarket

A prediction market platform where bettors can trade contracts on the likelihood of future events.

Donald Trump

The President of the United States, who has projected the U.S. military operation against Iran could last 4-5 weeks.

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The takeaway

The Polymarket data suggests the financial markets are skeptical of a quick resolution to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, with bettors seeing low odds of a ceasefire being reached by the end of March despite the initial optimism after the initial strikes.