Blakeman Closing Gap on Hochul as Voters Split on 'Tax the Rich' Proposal

New Siena poll shows Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman narrowing the lead of Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, as New Yorkers remain divided on Mayor Mamdani's call to raise taxes on high-earners.

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

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According to the latest Siena University poll, New York Governor Kathy Hochul, the Democratic incumbent, leads Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman 51% to 31% in a head-to-head matchup, with 18% undecided. This represents a six-point improvement for Blakeman, who trailed Hochul 54% to 28% in the previous Siena poll. The poll also shows that about half of New Yorkers surveyed support Mayor Zohran Mamdani's proposal to raise income taxes on New York City residents making more than $1 million, though suburban and upstate voters are more divided on the issue.

Why it matters

The narrowing gap between Hochul and Blakeman, as well as the split among voters on the 'Tax the Rich' proposal, could have significant implications for the upcoming gubernatorial election and state budget negotiations. Blakeman's gains in the suburbs, a crucial voting bloc, suggest the race may be tightening, while Mamdani's tax plan faces resistance outside of New York City despite majority statewide support.

The details

The Siena University poll found that Hochul's lead over Blakeman has shrunk from 26 points in January to 20 points in the latest survey. Blakeman saw notable improvement in the suburbs, trailing Hochul by just 2% compared to a 14% difference in January. The poll also showed that 54% of New Yorkers statewide, and 62% of New York City residents, back Mamdani's 'Tax the Rich' proposal, while just 21% oppose it. However, support for the tax hike is more tepid in the suburbs and upstate, with around half of voters in those regions in favor and about a third opposed.

  • The Siena University poll was conducted between February 23-26, 2026.

The players

Kathy Hochul

The Democratic incumbent Governor of New York.

Bruce Blakeman

The likely Republican nominee for Governor of New York and the current Nassau County Executive.

Zohran Mamdani

The Mayor of New York City who has called for raising income taxes on New York City residents making more than $1 million.

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What they’re saying

“What was a 25-point lead in December and a 26-point lead in January is now a 20-point lead, largely due to Republicans coming home to Blakeman.”

— Steve Greenberg, Siena poll spokesperson

“As we enter budget month for the state, neither Hochul nor either house of the Legislature has indicated public support for Mamdani's request to allow New York City to raise personal income taxes on City residents earning at least $1 million. Yet, the public is on Mamdani's side.”

— Steve Greenberg, Siena poll spokesperson

What’s next

The New York State legislature will need to consider Mamdani's 'Tax the Rich' proposal as part of the upcoming state budget negotiations.

The takeaway

The narrowing gap between the gubernatorial candidates and the split among voters on the 'Tax the Rich' proposal suggest that the upcoming election and budget process could be highly contentious, with both parties vying for the support of key voting blocs like suburban residents.