US and Israeli Strikes on Iran Rattle Oil Markets

Analysts anticipate immediate price reaction and impact on gas prices as conflict escalates.

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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The U.S. and Israel carried out large-scale strikes on Iran on Saturday, raising concerns about the potential impact on global oil markets and gas prices. Analysts expect crude oil prices to jump 5-10% as markets reopen, pushing the average price of gas above $3 per gallon for the first time this year.

Why it matters

The strikes target Iran's influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint. Any disruption to oil transit through the strait could significantly impact global supply and prices, with ripple effects on consumers at the pump.

The details

The U.S. is vowing to "annihilate" Iran's navy in an effort to control the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of the world's oil passes. While Iran has not followed through on past threats to close the waterway, the perception of risk is enough to move markets. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited infrastructure to bypass the strait, but not enough to fully offset any transit disruptions.

  • The U.S. and Israel carried out the strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026.

The players

United States

A global superpower that carried out strikes on Iran in coordination with Israel.

Israel

A close U.S. ally that participated in the strikes on Iran.

Iran

The target of the U.S. and Israeli strikes, with influence over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia

A major oil producer that has limited infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

A major oil producer that, like Saudi Arabia, has limited infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

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What they’re saying

“GasBuddy's Patrick DeHaan expects crude oil to jump 5-10% as markets reopen, pushing oil above $70 a barrel.”

— Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy analyst (wondradio.com)

What’s next

The impact on oil markets and gas prices will depend on the intensity and duration of the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

The takeaway

The escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran pose a significant risk to global oil supply and prices, with potential for significant impacts on consumers at the gas pump. This highlights the geopolitical vulnerabilities of the world's energy system and the need for greater energy security and diversification.