Copper Analyst Raises Concerns Over Rising Prices and Inventories

John E. Gross questions whether expectations have exceeded reality in the copper market.

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Veteran copper industry analyst John E. Gross has expressed concerns that the rising copper prices and inventory levels may indicate a potential bubble in the red metals market. Gross points to the unusual situation of copper prices and inventories both increasing simultaneously, which historically has not occurred. He questions whether expectations around increased copper demand from AI and government stockpiling have exceeded the actual market realities.

Why it matters

Gross' analysis raises important questions about the sustainability of the current copper price rally and whether the market is overheating. If copper prices are indeed in a bubble, it could lead to a sharp correction that would impact industries reliant on the metal, such as construction, electronics, and electric vehicles.

The details

In his latest edition of "The Copper Journal", Gross notes that copper prices and inventories have both been rising rapidly, which is highly unusual. Typically, when copper supplies increase, prices adjust downward. However, Gross observes that copper inventories held in major exchange warehouses have nearly doubled in the past year, reaching levels just shy of the all-time high set 24 years ago. He questions whether the expected increase in copper demand from AI development and government stockpiling initiatives has truly materialized to justify the current price levels.

  • Copper prices reached $6.05 per pound on the London Metal Exchange as of the first trading day in March 2026.
  • Copper inventories held in exchange warehouses rose by a record 258,756 metric tons during February 2026.
  • Total copper inventory levels at the three major exchanges (LME, Comex, SHFE) have nearly doubled in one year, from about 615,000 metric tons in February 2025 to nearly 1.2 million metric tons at the end of February 2026.

The players

John E. Gross

A New York-based analyst who has been releasing analysis of the red metals industry, including factors contributing to copper's supply, demand and value, for nearly four decades through his publication "The Copper Journal".

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“Just about everywhere we look, a heightened level of volatility is becoming an everyday occurrence.”

— John E. Gross, Copper Industry Analyst (The Copper Journal)

“Yes, the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout will consume more metal, and yes, Project Vault, the [United States government] plan to create a national stockpile of critical minerals, will divert metal into storage, but have expectations now exceeded reality?”

— John E. Gross, Copper Industry Analyst (The Copper Journal)

The takeaway

Gross' analysis raises concerns that the copper market may be overheating, with prices and inventories rising in tandem in a manner that historically has not occurred. This could signal the presence of a potential bubble, which if it bursts, could have significant ripple effects across industries reliant on copper.