Stock Futures Flat Ahead of Key Economic Data, Tariff Ruling

Traders await GDP, inflation reports and potential Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs

Published on Feb. 26, 2026

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Stock futures were little changed on Thursday night as traders prepared for the release of crucial economic data, including the fourth-quarter GDP report and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index. Investors are also awaiting a potential Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Why it matters

The economic data and Supreme Court decision could have a significant impact on the stock market. A stronger-than-expected GDP report or higher inflation could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, while a ruling against the tariffs could provide a boost to equities, even if the White House seeks to reapply them through other means.

The details

Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the fourth-quarter GDP report to show a 2.5% gain, while the headline PCE price index is forecast to rise 2.8% year-over-year. The core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have increased 3% over the prior 12 months. The Supreme Court is also expected to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, with traders mostly believing the market will react positively if the duties are struck down, even if the administration tries to reapply them.

  • The GDP report and PCE price index data are due on Friday morning.
  • The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the tariffs on Friday, with additional decision days scheduled for next Tuesday and Wednesday.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president who imposed the tariffs that are now being challenged in the Supreme Court.

Federal Reserve

The central bank whose preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, is being closely watched by traders.

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What they’re saying

“We think the market is treading water right now waiting for its next catalyst.”

— Paul Stanley, Chief Investment Officer, Granite Bay Wealth Management (CNBC)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.