Dollar Rises After Economic Data Signals Stability

The U.S. currency gains ground as jobless claims fall and trade deficit widens, giving the Federal Reserve room to hold interest rates steady.

Published on Feb. 25, 2026

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The U.S. dollar rose for a fourth straight session on Thursday, boosted by economic data that indicated the economy was stable, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates. Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, while the trade deficit widened, suggesting the central bank has leeway to keep rates unchanged despite pressure from the White House to lower them.

Why it matters

The strength of the dollar is a key indicator of the overall health of the U.S. economy. A rising dollar can make U.S. exports more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially impacting trade, while also influencing the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

The details

The Labor Department reported that weekly initial jobless claims fell by 23,000 to an adjusted 206,000, below the 225,000 estimate. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department data showed the U.S. trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion, well above the $55.5 billion estimate. Analysts said the data suggests the economy is stable, giving the Fed leeway to hold interest rates in check, despite pressure from the White House to lower them.

  • On February 19, 2026, the Labor Department reported weekly jobless claims data.
  • Also on February 19, 2026, the Commerce Department released trade deficit figures.

The players

Joseph Trevisani

A senior analyst at FXStreet in New York.

Neel Kashkari

The president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve.

Christine Lagarde

The president of the European Central Bank.

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What’s next

The Federal Reserve is expected to make its next interest rate decision in June, with markets currently pricing in a less than 50% chance of a rate cut at that time.

The takeaway

The resilience of the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the latest economic data, provides the Federal Reserve with the flexibility to maintain its current monetary policy stance, despite pressure from the White House to lower interest rates.