Stock Market Unfazed by Geopolitical Tensions

Investors shrug off potential U.S.-Iran conflict, with major indexes climbing higher

Published on Feb. 24, 2026

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Despite rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including the possibility of military action, the stock market has continued to climb higher this week. Major indexes like the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite have all posted gains, suggesting investors are largely unfazed by the geopolitical conflict.

Why it matters

Historically, the stock market has shown resilience in the face of geopolitical conflicts, often shrugging off such events. This pattern suggests investors may be more focused on underlying economic fundamentals than short-term political tensions when making investment decisions.

The details

Crude oil prices have risen about 6% this week as traders price in potential supply disruptions, but the broader stock market has continued its upward trajectory. The S&P 500 is up around 0.6% week-to-date, while the Dow and Nasdaq have climbed 0.3% and 0.9% respectively. This is in line with past trends, as Barclays' analysis shows the S&P 500 has averaged slight gains on the day before and day of a geopolitical event, with no change on average the following day.

  • The U.S. may take military action against Iran as soon as this weekend, according to reports.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States.

JD Vance

The Vice President of the United States.

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What they’re saying

“Strikes are possible after Iran ignored key U.S. demands regarding the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.”

— JD Vance, Vice President (CNN)

The takeaway

The stock market's resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions suggests investors are more focused on underlying economic fundamentals than short-term political events when making investment decisions.