Engineering Prof Explains Probability's Modern Impact

Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics, but its meaning remains elusive.

Published on Feb. 21, 2026

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Zachary del Rosario, Assistant Professor of Engineering at Olin College, discusses how probability is a fundamental concept in modern science that underlies technologies like AI, cryptography, and statistics, despite its counterintuitive nature. He explains that probability describes randomness and chance events, not strange occurrences, and is used to model long-term behaviors and leverage unpredictability to solve practical problems.

Why it matters

Probability is a critical mathematical concept that enables many of the advanced technologies and scientific practices we rely on today, from AI systems that predict the next word, to cryptographic security protocols, to the design of medical studies. Understanding the role and limitations of probability is key to appreciating how these important systems work.

The details

Del Rosario explains that to model probability, scientists must first define a sample space of possible events, then assign probabilities to those events. This requires making assumptions, like ignoring unlikely outcomes or ensuring a fair coin flip. While probability describes long-term trends, individual sequences can vary greatly. Probability differs from frequency, which measures the rate of events in a specific sequence. Del Rosario notes that probability underpins technologies like AI language models, cryptographic security, and the design of medical trials, where randomness and unpredictability play a key role.

  • Zachary del Rosario published this article on February 21, 2026.

The players

Zachary del Rosario

An Assistant Professor of Engineering at Olin College of Engineering who teaches statistics to engineers and discusses the importance of probability in modern science and technology.

Bertrand Russell

A philosopher who is quoted in the article as saying "Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means."

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What they’re saying

“Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.”

— Bertrand Russell (Mirage News)

“I teach statistics to engineers, so I know that while probability is important, it is counterintuitive.”

— Zachary del Rosario, Assistant Professor of Engineering, Olin College of Engineering (Mirage News)

The takeaway

Probability is a foundational mathematical concept that underpins many of the advanced technologies and scientific practices we rely on today, from AI to cryptography to medical research. While probability can be counterintuitive, understanding its role and limitations is crucial for appreciating how these important systems work.