New Research Debunks Trump's Claims on Tariffs

Study finds U.S. businesses and consumers bear vast majority of costs from Trump's trade policies.

Published on Feb. 13, 2026

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A new report from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University has found that U.S. companies and consumers paid around 90% of the economic burden from President Trump's tariffs, contradicting the administration's claims that foreign businesses would bear the costs.

Why it matters

Trump has repeatedly touted his tariffs as beneficial, but this research suggests his trade policies have significantly impacted American businesses and consumers, with smaller firms facing greater challenges in absorbing the additional costs.

The details

The study found that in the first eight months of 2025, about 94% of tariff costs were passed on to U.S. firms and consumers. Even by November, foreign exporters were still absorbing only around 14% of the tariff burden. Larger companies were sometimes able to negotiate discounts with suppliers or stockpile inventory, but small businesses faced greater difficulties and had to raise prices or risk going out of business.

  • The report was released on February 13, 2026.
  • The study analyzed data from the first eight months of 2025 and through November 2025.

The players

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

A regional bank of the Federal Reserve System that conducts economic research.

Columbia University

A prestigious Ivy League university located in New York City.

President Donald Trump

The former president who implemented a series of tariffs on imports during his administration.

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What’s next

The House of Representatives voted to end the national emergency Trump declared to impose tariffs on Canada, but the measure would need to pass the Senate and be signed by Trump to take effect, which is considered highly unlikely.

The takeaway

This research undermines a key claim made by the Trump administration about the impact of its trade policies, showing that American businesses and consumers have borne the brunt of the costs from the tariffs, not foreign exporters as the president had suggested. The findings highlight the real-world consequences of Trump's trade war on the U.S. economy.