US Birth Rate Decline Could Cost Economy $100 Billion

Slowing population growth projected to reduce household spending, jobs, and GDP

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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A new report has warned that the United States' waning birth rate and slowing population growth could result in a major hit to its overall economic competitiveness, with estimates suggesting the country could miss out on $103.9 billion in GDP by 2025 due to the 'growth gap' caused by declining fertility.

Why it matters

Declining birth rates can weigh heavily on an economy, shrinking the size of labor and consumer pools while increasing average age of the nation—resulting in rising expenditures on things such as health care and pensions and decreased tax revenue from the smaller working-age population. Demographic collapses of this kind have been cited as a driving force in other nations' economic troubles.

The details

According to the estimates from IMPLAN, an economic impact analysis platform, had population growth continued at its 2024 rate, billions of dollars in spending would 'have flowed through American businesses, supporting jobs, wages, and value creation across the economy.' However, newer data showing a further fertility slowdown in 2025 suggests the U.S. will now miss out on $103.9 billion going toward its gross domestic product (GDP). This 'growth gap' translates into around $86.2 billion in sacrificed household spending, which would have supported over 740,000 jobs and created $53.5 billion in labor income for American workers.

  • In 2025, the general fertility rate—total births per 1,000 birthing-age women—reached 53.6 in the third quarter compared to 54.6 a year prior.
  • According to recent demographic outlook published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. fertility rate is expected to continue dropping below replacement level in 2026 and beyond, with plateauing immigration figures resulting in population growth slowing to zero by 2056.

The players

IMPLAN

An economic impact analysis platform that provided the estimates on the potential economic impact of the declining U.S. birth rate.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

The agency that reported the U.S. fertility rate ticking down to an all-time low of 1.6 per-woman, dipping further below replacement levels.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

The agency that published a recent demographic outlook projecting the U.S. fertility rate to continue dropping below replacement level in 2026 and beyond, with plateauing immigration figures resulting in population growth slowing to zero by 2056.

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

The school that published a recent report on America's potential 'fertility crisis,' warning that a sub-replacement level of fertility can result in economic strain.

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What they’re saying

“A sub-replacement level of fertility can result in economic strain. If fertility rates continue their downward trend and lead to population decline, there will be fewer workers, spenders, and savers to fuel the economy.”

— Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health report)

The takeaway

The projected decline in the U.S. birth rate and slowing population growth could have significant economic consequences, potentially costing the country over $100 billion in GDP by 2025 due to reduced household spending, jobs, and labor income. This demographic shift could strain the economy, highlighting the need for policies to address the potential 'fertility crisis' and its ripple effects.