Memory Price Surge Puts Global Smartphone Production at Risk of Sharp Decline in 2026

TrendForce warns soaring memory prices could lead to 10-15% drop in smartphone output next year

Published on Feb. 11, 2026

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According to the latest research from TrendForce, the global smartphone industry is facing significant pressure from surging memory prices, which are expected to drive a 10% year-over-year decline in total smartphone production to around 1.135 billion units in 2026. In a bear-case scenario, the annual contraction could widen to 15% or more as brands struggle to pass along higher costs to price-sensitive consumers.

Why it matters

The memory price surge is putting smartphone makers in a difficult position, forcing them to either raise retail prices and risk dampening consumer demand, or absorb the higher costs and see profit margins erode. This could have major implications for the global smartphone market, with some brands more vulnerable than others depending on their product mix and regional exposure.

The details

Taking a mainstream 8GB + 256GB memory configuration as an example, estimated contract prices in Q1 2026 have surged nearly 200% year-over-year, roughly tripling from the same period last year. Memory, which historically accounted for around 10-15% of a smartphone's bill of materials (BOM), has now surged to 30-40%. TrendForce believes raising end-product prices will become unavoidable for many brands seeking to protect margins, while product portfolios and specifications will also need to be adjusted to manage persistently elevated memory costs.

  • In Q1 2026, estimated contract prices for a mainstream 8GB + 256GB memory configuration have surged nearly 200% year-over-year.

The players

TrendForce

A global leader in technology industry analysis and consulting services, providing in-depth research and strategic industry analysis.

Samsung

The global market leader in smartphones and a major memory supplier, expected to see a smaller production decline than Chinese brands due to vertical integration.

Apple

Shares the top market position with Samsung and is comparatively better positioned to absorb higher memory costs due to its higher proportion of premium models.

Xiaomi

A brand that relies heavily on entry-level models and is more vulnerable to cost volatility, with limited room to pass through higher costs to its price-sensitive target markets.

Transsion

A brand that relies heavily on entry-level models and is more vulnerable to cost volatility, with limited room to pass through higher costs to its price-sensitive target markets.

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The takeaway

The memory price surge is putting significant pressure on the global smartphone industry, forcing brands to make difficult decisions between raising prices and risking dampened consumer demand, or absorbing higher costs and seeing profit margins erode. This could lead to a sharp decline in smartphone production in 2026, with some brands more vulnerable than others depending on their product mix and regional exposure.