Carbon Direct Releases 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market Report

Report finds critical inflection point for carbon dioxide removal market as buyer hesitation threatens to strand essential projects

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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Carbon Direct has released its 2026 flagship report analyzing the voluntary carbon market (VCM) with a focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The report finds that while the infrastructure, science, and solutions are ready to scale, buyer hesitation threatens to strand essential carbon removal projects just as policy catalysts and new standards are poised to unlock greater demand.

Why it matters

The report highlights the urgent need for rapid carbon removal scale-up alongside deep emissions reductions to limit overshoot of 1.5°C. However, the CDR market remains only at 8 million tonnes, 0.4% of the potential 2 gigatonne target by 2050, indicating a critical gap between corporate climate commitments and the purchasing activity needed to drive the market forward.

The details

The report warns that without demand today, CDR supply will be at risk tomorrow. Most organizations holding 2030 climate goals have yet to engage in CDR procurement, representing both an immediate need and an opportunity to catalyze the market. Several pivotal developments on the horizon, such as updated industry standards and compliance mechanisms, could trigger market activation. However, the report finds that only 6% of the overall VCM is CDR, and fewer than 10% of CDR projects reviewed by Carbon Direct meet their high-quality thresholds, indicating a scarcity of scientifically credible removal credits.

  • The report was released on February 10, 2026.
  • The report analyzes the voluntary carbon market with a focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the context of 2030 climate goals, which are only four years away.

The players

Carbon Direct

A trusted energy and climate solutions firm that combines scientific expertise, technical rigor, and market insights to help clients achieve their business goals.

Sanna O'Connor-Morberg

Director of Strategy & Markets for Carbon Direct.

Bodie Cabiyo, PhD

Director of Interdisciplinary Science for Carbon Direct.

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What they’re saying

“With 2030 only four years away, most organizations with climate targets have yet to actually engage in carbon dioxide removal procurement—representing both an immediate need and an enormous opportunity to catalyze the market at the scale required.”

— Sanna O'Connor-Morberg, Director of Strategy & Markets (Carbon Direct)

“2026 represents a leadership opportunity for companies who have the power to scale the markets they need now and into the future.”

— Bodie Cabiyo, PhD, Director of Interdisciplinary Science (Carbon Direct)

What’s next

The report suggests that decisive action from buyers is the missing link to scale the CDR market at the speed required, as the science, solutions, and supply are ready now. The escalating risk of climate overshoot leaves no room for delay.

The takeaway

The report highlights the critical inflection point for the voluntary carbon market, where the infrastructure, science, and solutions for carbon dioxide removal are ready to scale, but buyer hesitation threatens to strand essential projects. Translating corporate climate commitments into purchasing activity is the key to unlocking the CDR market's potential to support climate goals.