US Natural Gas Futures Fall More Than 8% on Milder Forecasts

Warmer weather outlook erases previous session's gains

Feb. 9, 2026 at 4:07pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

U.S. natural gas futures fell by more than 8% on Monday as forecasts called for milder weather than previously expected for the rest of February, erasing the previous session's gains. Gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to $3.15 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down from $3.659 per mmBtu on Friday.

Why it matters

Natural gas prices are a key indicator of energy costs and can impact consumer and business budgets. Fluctuations in natural gas futures can also affect the profitability of energy companies and the overall economy.

The details

The sharp decline in natural gas futures was driven by forecasts for warmer than normal temperatures nationwide through February 23, which would reduce heating demand. This comes after colder weather earlier in the winter led to heavy withdrawals from underground storage. However, production has since increased, offsetting some of the demand from LNG exports.

  • On Monday, February 9, 2026, U.S. natural gas futures fell by more than 8%.
  • On Friday, February 6, 2026, the gas futures contract hit $3.659 per mmBtu.

The players

Ritterbusch and associates

A market analysis firm that noted the reversal in gas price gains due to the continued above-normal temperature forecasts.

LSEG

London Stock Exchange Group, which reported that average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 106.99 billion cubic feet per day so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“The strong gas price advance through most of last week was obviously reversed by continued above normal temperature forecasts that have been extended into the last week of this month.”

— Ritterbusch and associates, Market analysts

The takeaway

The sharp decline in U.S. natural gas futures highlights the volatility of the energy market and the significant impact that weather forecasts can have on prices. This price swing could affect consumer energy costs and the profitability of natural gas producers and distributors in the coming weeks.