NY Fed Survey Shows Lower Near-Term Inflation Expectations, Improved Job Market Views

Americans grew less worried about inflation and hiring in January, according to the latest Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey.

Published on Feb. 9, 2026

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations found that Americans' one-year inflation expectations fell to 3.1% in January from 3.4% in December. Respondents also reported a more positive outlook on the job market, with lower perceived chances of losing their job and an improved outlook for finding a new one if needed. However, households still expect the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now compared to December.

Why it matters

The retreat in near-term inflation expectations is viewed as positive news for the Federal Reserve as it navigates the challenging environment of high inflation. The survey results suggest the central bank's efforts to tame price pressures may be having some impact, though longer-term inflation expectations remain a concern.

The details

The New York Fed survey found that inflation expectations one year from now stood at 3.1% in January, down from 3.4% in December. Expectations at the three- and five-year horizons held steady at 3%. On the job market front, respondents reported a lower chance of losing their job and an improved outlook for finding one if needed. However, households still expect the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now compared to December. The survey also found that respondents see credit as harder to get in the future and have downgraded their assessments of their current and future financial situations.

  • The survey was conducted in January 2026.
  • The one-year inflation expectation was 3.4% in December 2025 and fell to 3.1% in January 2026.
  • The three- and five-year inflation expectations held steady at 3% in January 2026.

The players

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The regional Federal Reserve bank that conducts the Survey of Consumer Expectations to gauge household views on inflation, the job market, and personal finance.

Philip Jefferson

Federal Reserve Vice Chair, who commented that the central bank is still perceived as credible in its efforts to bring inflation down to its target.

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What they’re saying

“My view is that we are still perceived of as being credible now with respect to the current situation with inflation being above target, and that inflation pressures will ease over time.”

— Philip Jefferson, Federal Reserve Vice Chair (Reuters)

What’s next

The Federal Reserve will likely continue to closely monitor consumer inflation expectations and the job market as it determines the appropriate path for monetary policy in the months ahead.

The takeaway

The decline in near-term inflation expectations and improved job market outlook in the New York Fed survey provide some encouraging signs for the Federal Reserve as it works to bring down high inflation while avoiding a sharp economic downturn. However, the central bank will need to remain vigilant as longer-term inflation expectations and the unemployment rate outlook still pose challenges.