IRS Expects 164 Million Tax Returns by April 15

Average refund could be $1,000 higher this year, but delays likely due to IRS staffing shortages

Published on Feb. 8, 2026

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The IRS expects 164 million individual income tax returns to be filed by the April 15 deadline this year. The average refund in 2025 was $3,167, and analysts project it could be $1,000 higher in 2026 due to changes in tax law. However, the IRS is facing staffing challenges after an exodus of workers since the start of the Trump administration, which could lead to delays for some taxpayers.

Why it matters

Tax refunds are an important source of income for many Americans, and delays in processing returns can create financial hardship. The IRS staffing shortages highlight the ongoing challenges the agency faces in providing timely and efficient service to taxpayers.

The details

The IRS started 2025 with about 102,000 employees but finished the year with roughly 74,000 after a series of firings and layoffs. This has led to concerns that the 2026 tax filing season will present challenges, especially for those who run into problems filing their returns. The IRS cautions taxpayers not to rely on receiving a refund by a certain date, especially when making major purchases or paying bills.

  • The IRS expects 164 million individual income tax returns to be filed by April 15, 2026.
  • The average refund in 2025 was $3,167.
  • Analysts project the average refund could be $1,000 higher in 2026 due to changes in tax law.

The players

IRS

The Internal Revenue Service, the federal agency responsible for administering and enforcing federal tax laws.

Trump Administration

The administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump, which led to an exodus of IRS workers.

Department of Government Efficiency

The government agency that oversaw a series of firings and layoffs at the IRS.

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What they’re saying

“The 2026 tax filing season is likely to present challenges for those who run into problems filing.”

— National Taxpayer Advocate (toledoblade.com)

The takeaway

The IRS staffing shortages highlight the ongoing challenges the agency faces in providing timely and efficient service to taxpayers, which could lead to delays in processing tax refunds for some Americans this year.