Falling Birthrates Unlikely to Solve Climate Change or AI Disruption

Experts say population decline will have only a negligible impact on climate change and may not cushion the economic fallout from AI automation.

Published on Feb. 4, 2026

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As global birthrates plummet, some optimists believe a smaller human population could help mitigate the effects of climate change and the disruption of artificial intelligence. However, experts say this is unlikely to be the case. The timelines for population decline and climate change don't align, and a shrinking workforce may not provide much cushion against the economic fallout of AI automation. While demographic changes will have major implications, they are unlikely to be a silver bullet for these global challenges.

Why it matters

The assumption that falling birthrates could help solve climate change and AI disruption has had a lingering cultural impact. However, the research shows this is an oversimplification. Understanding the true dynamics at play is crucial for policymakers to develop effective solutions to these complex, intertwined issues.

The details

Researchers found that even if the world's population shrinks by billions by 2200, it would make less than one-tenth of a degree Celsius of difference to peak temperatures compared to a stable population. This is because the timelines don't align - climate change is an immediate threat, while population decline happens gradually over decades. Similarly, while AI may displace human workers, a smaller workforce would not necessarily cushion the economic fallout, as even a small displaced population can cause major disruption.

  • The world's population is projected to start shrinking in the next 50 to 60 years.
  • China's birthrate hit a record low in 2025.
  • The U.S. population grew at one of its slowest rates ever in recent years, due to declining fertility rates and an immigration slowdown.

The players

Dean Spears

Researcher at the University of Texas at Austin who worked on a paper analyzing the impact of population decline on climate change.

Beata Javorcik

Chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, who believes robots won't arrive soon enough to compensate for the productivity decline of an aging, shrinking workforce.

David Autor

Economist at MIT who believes it's unlikely that AI will replace all or most human workers, and that a smaller population would not cushion the economic and political fallout from displaced workers.

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What they’re saying

“The population is a big ship, slow to turn.”

— Dean Spears, Researcher (The New York Times)

“In many places, the problem of an aging population and shrinking work force is already here. Post-Communist countries in Eastern Europe, for example, 'got old before getting rich.'”

— Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist (The New York Times)

“Even a small displaced work force has the potential to cause major disruption.”

— David Autor, Economist (The New York Times)

The takeaway

While falling birthrates will have major economic and social implications, they are unlikely to provide a silver bullet for the urgent challenges of climate change and AI disruption. Policymakers must develop more nuanced, multi-faceted solutions to address these complex, interrelated issues.