IRS Expects 164 Million Tax Returns by April 15

Average refund could be $1,000 higher this year, but IRS staffing challenges may cause delays.

Jan. 29, 2026 at 5:47pm

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The IRS expects 164 million individual income tax returns to be filed by the April 15 deadline. The average refund last year was $3,167, and analysts project it could be $1,000 higher this year due to changes in tax law. However, the IRS has faced staffing challenges, with the number of employees dropping from around 102,000 at the start of 2025 to 74,000 by the end of the year, which could lead to delays for some taxpayers.

Why it matters

The tax filing season is an important time for many Americans, as tax refunds can provide a significant financial boost. However, the IRS staffing challenges could make the process more difficult for some taxpayers, especially those who run into problems or need assistance.

The details

The IRS cautions that taxpayers should not rely on receiving a refund by a certain date, especially when making major purchases or paying bills. Taxpayers can use the online tool "Where's My Refund?" to check the status of their refund within 24 hours of e-filing and generally within four weeks of filing a paper return. The IRS also notes that taxpayers must have a Social Security number or individual taxpayer ID number (ITIN) to access the tool.

  • The IRS expects 164 million individual income tax returns to be filed by April 15, 2026.
  • The average refund last year was $3,167.
  • The IRS started 2025 with about 102,000 employees and finished with roughly 74,000 after a series of firings and layoffs.

The players

IRS

The Internal Revenue Service, the federal agency responsible for administering and enforcing federal tax laws.

Department of Government Efficiency

The government agency that led the series of firings and layoffs that resulted in the IRS losing around 28,000 employees in 2025.

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What’s next

The IRS expects most refunds for the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit and the Additional Child Tax Credit to be available in bank accounts or on debit cards by March 2 for taxpayers who choose direct deposit.

The takeaway

The 2026 tax filing season is likely to present challenges for some taxpayers due to the significant reduction in IRS staffing levels, which could lead to delays in processing returns and issuing refunds. Taxpayers should plan accordingly and use the available online tools to track the status of their refunds.