Canada Blocks U.S. Prediction Markets from Entering Market

Regulators in Ontario have banned short-term binary options, effectively shutting out prediction market operators from the province

Mar. 13, 2026 at 5:45pm

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U.S.-based prediction market operators have yet to launch their online sports betting platforms in Canada, as Canadian regulators have largely kept them out of the market. Ontario in particular has banned short-term binary options, which are the core product offered by prediction market operators. This has led the Canadian Gaming Association to say the country has "dodged a bullet" when it comes to the disruption caused by prediction markets in the U.S.

Why it matters

Prediction markets have emerged as a new form of online gambling in the U.S., but they operate in a legal gray area and have faced regulatory challenges. Canadian authorities want to avoid similar issues and have taken steps to prevent prediction market operators from entering the market, at least for now.

The details

In 2017, Canadian provincial securities regulators announced a ban on offering 'binary options' that resolve in less than a month. This effectively covers the 'yes/no' betting markets offered by prediction market operators. Polymarket learned this the hard way in 2025 when it was hit with a two-year trading ban and over $200,000 in penalties by Ontario securities regulators for failing to comply with the binary options ban.

  • In 2017, Canadian provincial securities regulators announced a ban on offering 'binary options' that resolve in less than a month.
  • In May 2023, residents of Ontario were prohibited from trading on Polymarket.
  • In April 2025, Polymarket entered into a settlement agreement with the Ontario Securities Commission.

The players

Canadian Gaming Association

The national trade association for the gaming and casino industry in Canada, led by president and CEO Paul Burns.

Polymarket

A U.S.-based prediction market operator that was hit with a two-year trading ban and financial penalties by Ontario securities regulators for failing to comply with the binary options ban.

Ontario Securities Commission

The securities regulator in the Canadian province of Ontario that enforced the binary options ban and penalized Polymarket.

Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO)

The regulator of Ontario's sports betting and iGaming market, which has a memorandum of understanding with the Ontario Securities Commission.

iGaming Ontario

The government agency in Ontario that authorizes and regulates online gambling operators in the province.

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What they’re saying

“I can probably say if prediction markets come back in any form to Canada - I know there are people trying to do that, talking to the regulators about it - it won't include sports. And we will probably make sure of that too.”

— Paul Burns, President and CEO, Canadian Gaming Association

What’s next

The Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO) and the Ontario Securities Commission will continue to monitor the development of prediction markets and work to prevent them from entering the Canadian market, especially in relation to sports betting.

The takeaway

Canadian regulators have effectively shut the door on U.S.-style prediction markets entering the Canadian market, at least for now, by banning short-term binary options that are the core product of these platforms. This regulatory action has allowed Canada to avoid the disruption and legal battles that prediction markets have caused in the U.S.