Shooting-Free Days Drop in Major US Cities, New Peace Metric Introduced

Columbia University study finds concerning declines in days without firearm shootings across the 10 largest US cities from 2015-2024.

Mar. 18, 2026 at 5:14am

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A new study by researchers at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health and the Columbia Scientific Union for the Reduction of Gun Violence (Columbia SURGE) found that between 2015 and 2024, the total number of days without firearm shootings declined in all but one of the ten largest U.S. cities. The study introduces four novel metrics - shooting-free days (SFDs), shooting death-free days (SDFDs), consecutive shooting-free days (CSFDs), and multiple shooting-free days (MSFDs) - to capture periods of peace and prevention gains beyond just homicide counts.

Why it matters

These new metrics offer a valuable approach to identify where and when interventions are effective, motivate communities, and guide policy toward sustaining longer periods without firearm violence in U.S. cities. The findings highlight the need to focus on building and sustaining periods of peace with zero shootings, rather than just measuring failures.

The details

The study analyzed firearm injuries in 10 U.S. cities from January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2024 using data from the Gun Violence Archive. San Diego consistently exhibited the highest numbers across all four metrics, while Chicago had the lowest. There was an overall downward trend in all metrics, indicating growth in firearm violence over the decade, including a pullback during the pandemic surge. Jacksonville was the only city to show improvement in one metric over time, while Phoenix and Dallas-Fort Worth saw declines across all four.

  • The study analyzed data from January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2024.

The players

Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health

The university's public health school where the study was conducted.

Columbia Scientific Union for the Reduction of Gun Violence (Columbia SURGE)

A research group at Columbia University focused on reducing gun violence.

Charles Branas, PhD

The study's first author, Gelman Professor and chair of Epidemiology at Columbia Mailman School, and founding member of SURGE.

Gun Violence Archive (GVA)

A publicly available database operated by an independent, nonprofit research organization that tracks firearm-related incidents across the US.

Isbah Plumber, Riley Bennett, and Olivia Landes

Additional authors of the study, all affiliated with Columbia Mailman School and Columbia SURGE.

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What they’re saying

“Like 'injury-free days' used in workplace safety programs to recognize stretches of time without accidents, these metrics capture the number of days in a year when shooting incidents do not occur.”

— Charles Branas, Gelman Professor and chair of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School; founding member, Columbia SURGE

“Instead of focusing on failures, these metrics highlight periods of success and could serve as the basis for creating meaningful goals to extend and sustain those successes. They can also offer near real-time evidence of intervention effectiveness at the neighborhood or city level.”

— Charles Branas, Gelman Professor and chair of Epidemiology, Columbia Mailman School; founding member, Columbia SURGE

The takeaway

This study introduces new metrics that shift the focus from measuring failures to highlighting periods of success in preventing gun violence. By tracking shooting-free days, cities can identify protective conditions and set meaningful goals to sustain longer stretches of peace, informing more effective interventions and policies.