Michigan State Spartans Seek Sweet 16 Berth in March Madness

Experts weigh in on the Spartans' chances of advancing deep into the NCAA Tournament

Mar. 16, 2026 at 9:09am

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Michigan State basketball is the 3-seed in the South region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The Spartans open their March Madness run in Buffalo, New York on Thursday, and experts from the Detroit Free Press have provided their predictions on how far the team will go in the tournament.

Why it matters

Michigan State is a perennial NCAA Tournament contender under head coach Tom Izzo, and their performance in this year's March Madness will be closely watched by fans and analysts alike. The Spartans' success or failure in the tournament could have implications for the program's future and Izzo's legacy.

The details

The experts believe the Spartans will advance to the Sweet 16 by defeating North Dakota State and Louisville, but they will then fall to 2-seed UConn in the regional semifinals. Some experts are more pessimistic, predicting the Spartans will lose to UConn in the Sweet 16 due to their lack of depth and energy issues that were exposed in their Big Ten Tournament loss to UCLA.

  • The Spartans open their NCAA Tournament run on Thursday, March 20, 2026 (4:05 p.m., TNT) in Buffalo, New York.
  • The Sweet 16 games will be played in Washington, D.C. on March 27, 2026.
  • The Elite Eight games will be played in Washington, D.C. on March 29, 2026.
  • The Final Four will be held in Indianapolis, Indiana on April 5-7, 2026.

The players

Tom Izzo

The longtime head coach of the Michigan State Spartans men's basketball team, known for his success in leading the program to multiple Final Four appearances and a national championship.

Jeff Seidel

A sports columnist for the Detroit Free Press who has provided his prediction for the Spartans' NCAA Tournament run.

Carlos Monarrez

A sports reporter for the Detroit Free Press who has also weighed in on the Spartans' chances in the NCAA Tournament.

Tony Garcia

A sports reporter for the Detroit Free Press who has offered his prediction for how far the Spartans will advance in the tournament.

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What they’re saying

“Tom Izzo has made Michigan State basketball numb to success”

— Jeff Seidel, Sports Columnist (Detroit Free Press)

“MSU's lack of energy and defensive breakdowns against UCLA in a one-and-done Big Ten Tournament exit are concerning. Tom Izzo know how to get his team ready for the Big Dance, but 2-seed UConn will be too much in their Sweet 16 matchup.”

— Carlos Monarrez, Sports Reporter (Detroit Free Press)

“The Spartans got a tough draw after falling to the 3-seed line when Purdue won the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans should escape a tough contest against North Dakota State, but that could be followed by a capable South Florida team which could upset Louisville. The run ends in the Sweet 16 against a UConn squad that has the size and skill to handle MSU's greatest strengths.”

— Tony Garcia, Sports Reporter (Detroit Free Press)

What’s next

The Spartans will need to regroup and focus on their first-round matchup against North Dakota State, as a loss there would end their NCAA Tournament run before they even reach the Sweet 16.

The takeaway

Michigan State's March Madness hopes rest on their ability to overcome the issues that were exposed in their Big Ten Tournament loss and find a way to advance past a tough UConn team in the Sweet 16. While the Spartans have the pedigree to make a deep run, their lack of depth and recent struggles could ultimately prove to be their undoing in this year's tournament.