Raiders' Top Pick Mendoza Draws Burrow Comparisons

Analysts see similarities but also caution about 'one-year wonder' concerns.

Apr. 13, 2026 at 2:39pm

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A cubist-style painting depicting a quarterback in motion, with the figure broken down into fragmented geometric shapes and planes, conveying the analytical nature of evaluating a player's professional prospects.An analytical breakdown of the top quarterback prospect's college career and NFL potential.Las Vegas Today

As the Las Vegas Raiders prepare to make Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, analysts have drawn comparisons between Mendoza and recent No. 1 pick Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals. While Mendoza's final college season was statistically impressive, some experts have cautioned that he may not be viewed as highly as previous top picks due to concerns about being a 'one-year wonder' at the college level.

Why it matters

The Raiders are desperately seeking a long-term solution at quarterback, and landing a potential franchise QB with the top pick is crucial. However, the team will want to ensure Mendoza can avoid the injury issues that have plagued Burrow early in his NFL career.

The details

Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2025, winning the Heisman Trophy and leading Indiana to a national championship. Analysts have noted similarities between Mendoza's meteoric rise and Burrow's path to becoming the top pick in 2020. However, Mendoza's final college season was not quite as statistically dominant as Burrow's, and he may not be viewed as a 'safer' prospect due to only having one year of elite production.

  • Mendoza is expected to be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on April 23.
  • Burrow was selected first overall by the Bengals in the 2020 NFL Draft.

The players

Fernando Mendoza

The star quarterback from Indiana University who is projected to be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Joe Burrow

The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback who was the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and has led the team to two conference championship games and a Super Bowl appearance.

Aaron Schatz

An ESPN analyst who has compared Mendoza's career trajectory to that of Burrow.

Trevor Lawrence

The former Clemson quarterback who was the first overall pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Caleb Williams

The former USC quarterback who was the first overall pick by the Chicago Bears in the 2025 NFL Draft.

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What they’re saying

“Mendoza's career trajectory has been closest to the Bengals' Joe Burrow as it pertains to quarterbacks drafted with No. 1 overall choices this decade.”

— Aaron Schatz, ESPN Analyst

“Mendoza's final season was not quite on the same level as Burrow's statistically, and because of QBASE 2.0's one-year wonder penalty, Mendoza does not grade as highly as previous No. 1 picks such as the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence and the Bears' Caleb Williams, who had multiple seasons of top-caliber play in college and were viewed as safer prospects.”

— Aaron Schatz, ESPN Analyst

“Mendoza is a worthy top pick, and none of this year's other quarterbacks come close to his projection. We estimate that there is only a 15.2% chance that at least one of the other four quarterbacks listed develops into an 'upper tier' or 'elite' starter in the NFL.”

— Aaron Schatz, ESPN Analyst

What’s next

The Raiders will make their selection with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on April 23.

The takeaway

While Mendoza may not be viewed as highly as previous top QB prospects, the Raiders appear poised to take him with the first pick, hoping he can follow in the footsteps of Joe Burrow and develop into a franchise-changing quarterback. However, the team will need to ensure Mendoza can avoid the injury issues that have plagued Burrow early in his NFL career.