Rafael Tobias to Make UFC Debut at UFC 326 Prelims

Tobias looks to capitalize on Diyar Nurgozhay's grappling weakness in preliminary fight

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

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The UFC returns to Las Vegas for UFC 326, featuring a main event title fight between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. Buried on the prelims is a fight between newcomer Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay. Tobias, a submission specialist, will look to exploit Nurgozhay's struggles on the mat in his UFC debut.

Why it matters

Tobias' grappling skills could provide value on the moneyline against an opponent in Nurgozhay who has struggled with submissions in his previous UFC fights. This preliminary bout could be an opportunity for bettors to find an edge on the undercard.

The details

Rafael Tobias makes his UFC debut after earning a contract through the Contender Series. Six of Tobias' 14 career wins have come by submission, showcasing his strong ground game. His opponent, Diyar Nurgozhay, has been submitted in each of his first two UFC fights, including against a striker in Brandon Ribiero. Tobias' wrestling and jiu-jitsu skills should pose major problems for Nurgozhay on the mat.

  • The UFC 326 prelims will take place on Saturday, March 7, 2026 at 5:00pm EST.

The players

Rafael Tobias

A newcomer to the UFC, Tobias earned his contract through the Contender Series and brings a 14-4 professional record with six submission wins.

Diyar Nurgozhay

Nurgozhay has struggled with submissions in his first two UFC fights, getting tapped out in both contests.

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What they’re saying

“If Nurgozhay had trouble with guys like Ribiero on the mat, Tobias is going to be a nightmare for him.”

— Daniel Vreeland, Author (sportsgamblingpodcast.com)

What’s next

Bettors will be closely watching the weigh-ins and any last-minute injury news ahead of this preliminary bout between Tobias and Nurgozhay at UFC 326.

The takeaway

This preliminary fight between Tobias and Nurgozhay presents an opportunity for bettors to potentially find value on the moneyline, as Tobias' strong grappling skills could prove problematic for an opponent in Nurgozhay who has struggled with submissions in his previous UFC appearances.