UFC Vegas 113: Oliveira Scores Upset Over Bautista in Main Event

Predictive model favors Brazilian underdog in key fight night clash

Published on Feb. 8, 2026

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UFC Vegas 113 delivered an exciting main event upset, as Vinicius 'Lok Dog' Oliveira defeated the more experienced Mario Bautista in the headlining bout. The predictive model had favored Oliveira, an undefeated six-fight UFC streak holder, to pull off the victory over Bautista, who entered the fight with a solid 13-fight UFC resume.

Why it matters

This result highlights the value of data-driven analysis in MMA betting, as the model was able to identify Oliveira as a live underdog with genuine upset potential. The win also marks a significant career milestone for the young Brazilian fighter, who continues to make his mark in the UFC's competitive featherweight division.

The details

Oliveira, known for his powerful striking and finishing ability, was able to land the cleaner and more damaging blows throughout the fight, ultimately earning a decisive victory over the more experienced Bautista. The model's prediction was based on Oliveira's superior striking efficiency, knockout power, and grappling control, which proved to be the difference-makers in the main event clash.

  • UFC Vegas 113 took place on February 8, 2026 at the newly named META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The players

Vinicius 'Lok Dog' Oliveira

An undefeated Brazilian fighter with a 6-0 UFC record and 18 career finishes, 16 of which are knockouts.

Mario Bautista

A veteran UFC fighter with a 13-fight promotional record, including wins over notable opponents like Ricky Simon, Patchy Mix, and a late-career Jose Aldo.

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What they’re saying

“Oliveira's power and precision were the difference-makers tonight. He showed why he's one of the top prospects in the featherweight division.”

— Kyle Anthony, MMA Analyst, WagerTalk (First Strike Podcast)

What’s next

Oliveira's victory will likely earn him a step up in competition, potentially setting up a matchup against a top-ranked featherweight contender in his next outing.

The takeaway

UFC Vegas 113 demonstrated the value of data-driven analysis in MMA betting, as the predictive model accurately identified Oliveira as a live underdog with the potential to upset the more experienced Bautista. This result serves as a reminder for bettors to rely on statistical insights rather than relying solely on name recognition or perceived fighter advantages.