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Boulder City Today
By the People, for the People
USBR Releases February 2026 Colorado River Forecast
Projections show continued aridification and reduced streamflow in the Colorado River Basin
Published on Feb. 14, 2026
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The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) has released its February 2026 24-Month Study for the Colorado River Basin, outlining the projected operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead for the upcoming water year. The report highlights ongoing drought conditions and reduced streamflow, leading to adjustments in water releases to protect critical reservoir elevations.
Why it matters
The Colorado River Basin has been experiencing severe aridification for years, with declining snowpack, reduced runoff, and historically low reservoir levels. This 24-Month Study provides crucial information for water managers, policymakers, and the public on the current state of the basin and the operational decisions that will be made to address the ongoing water supply challenges.
The details
According to the report, the operational tier for Lake Powell in water year 2026 will be the Mid-Elevation Release Tier, with a projected release volume of 7.48 million acre-feet (maf). However, adjustments have been made to hold back 0.598 maf in Lake Powell from December 2025 through April 2026 to protect a target elevation of 3,525 feet. This water will be released later in the year. For Lake Mead, a Shortage Condition will govern operations in 2026, with additional conservation efforts under the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan.
- The observed unregulated inflow into Lake Powell for January 2026 was 0.265 maf or 79% of the 30-year average.
- The February 2026 unregulated inflow forecast for Lake Powell is 0.260 maf or 71% of the 30-year average.
- The 2026 April through July unregulated inflow forecast for Lake Powell is 2.40 maf or 38% of average.
- The water year 2026 unregulated inflow forecast for Lake Powell is 5.02 maf or 52% of average.
The players
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
The federal agency responsible for managing water resources in the western United States, including the operation of the Colorado River system.
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
A division of the National Weather Service that provides streamflow forecasts and other hydrologic data for the Colorado River Basin.
Alex Pivarnik
The Upper Colorado River Basin River Operations Group Supervisor at the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
Noe Santos
The Lower Colorado River Basin River Operations Manager at the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
What’s next
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation will continue to monitor the Colorado River Basin's hydrologic conditions and make operational adjustments as necessary to protect critical reservoir elevations, including considering all available tools to avoid Lake Powell's elevation declining below 3,500 feet.
The takeaway
The February 2026 24-Month Study highlights the ongoing aridification and reduced streamflow in the Colorado River Basin, requiring proactive water management strategies to address the region's persistent drought conditions and ensure the long-term sustainability of this vital water resource.
