Opinion: War Poses Existential Threat to Iran

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In this opinion piece, the author Rube Render discusses the concept of existential threats as they apply to nation states, and examines the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran from this perspective. Render argues that while Ukraine's entrance into NATO was viewed as an existential threat by Russia, the current war has become existential for both Russia and Ukraine. Similarly, Render contends the war in Iran poses an existential threat to the country, while potentially also impacting other Arab nations in the region through collateral damage. The author suggests that for the U.S. president, Donald Trump, ending the Iran war quickly and favorably could be crucial to avoiding an existential threat to his own presidency.

Why it matters

This opinion piece provides insight into how the concept of 'existential threat' is being applied to the current geopolitical conflicts, particularly the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Understanding these dynamics is important for contextualizing the high stakes and potential consequences of these ongoing crises for the nations involved.

The details

Render argues that unlike a 'war of choice' or limited conflict, an 'existential war' is a 'winner-take-all' scenario where the loser faces total subjugation. He contends Russia has viewed Ukraine's potential NATO membership as an existential threat for over 30 years, and that the current war has become existential for both Russia and Ukraine. Similarly, Render asserts the war in Iran poses an existential threat to the country, given the longstanding calls by various nations for regime change in Iran. The author suggests the war could also have devastating collateral impacts on other Arab nations in the region.

• The war in Iran involving Israel, Iran and the United States began on March 7, 2026.

What they’re saying

What’s next

To preclude an existential threat to his presidency, the author suggests that President Donald Trump should announce that with the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, regime change in Iran has been achieved, declare victory, and come home.