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NCAA Tournament Upsets Fewer This Year
NIL deals may be reducing Cinderella stories in March Madness
Published on Mar. 9, 2026
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The NCAA men's basketball tournament has historically been known for its unpredictable Cinderella stories, with lower-seeded teams pulling off shocking upsets over powerhouse programs. However, this year's tournament could see fewer of those dramatic upsets, as the rise of Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) deals may be evening the playing field between top teams and mid-major programs.
Why it matters
The NCAA tournament's unpredictability and Cinderella stories are a big part of what makes the event so exciting for fans. If those types of upsets become less common, it could diminish some of the tournament's appeal and drama.
The details
NIL deals allow college athletes to profit off their name, image and likeness, which has enabled top recruits to be compensated at elite programs. This may be reducing the talent gap between the powerhouse teams and mid-major Cinderella contenders, making it harder for those underdogs to pull off stunning upsets.
- The 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament is scheduled for March 2026.
The players
Princeton
A men's basketball program that has historically been known for pulling off NCAA tournament upsets.
UCLA
A top-tier men's basketball program that has been upset by lower-seeded teams in the NCAA tournament in the past.
Bryce Drew
A former Valparaiso player who hit a famous buzzer-beater to upset a higher-seeded team in the NCAA tournament.
Saint Peter's Peacocks
A men's basketball team that defied the odds as a 15-seed and made a deep run in the NCAA tournament.
The takeaway
The rise of NIL deals in college sports may be reducing the talent gap between top programs and mid-major Cinderella contenders, potentially leading to fewer dramatic upsets in future NCAA tournaments. This could diminish some of the excitement and unpredictability that has long been a hallmark of March Madness.
