United Airlines braces for $175 oil and $100+ prices through 2027

CEO warns of $11 billion in additional fuel costs if prices stay at current levels

Mar. 21, 2026 at 4:39pm

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United Airlines is preparing for a future where oil prices remain high, with CEO Scott Kirby warning that jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks, representing an additional $11 billion in annual costs if prices stay at that level. The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has disrupted air traffic to key Middle East hubs, forcing planes to take alternate routes that burn more fuel. United's plans assume oil hits $175 a barrel and doesn't go back down to $100 until the end of 2027.

Why it matters

The surge in fuel costs is the biggest disruption to the airline industry since the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing United and other carriers to make contingency plans that include capacity cuts, route reductions, and potential cost-saving measures. The ability of airlines to pass on these higher fuel costs to consumers will be a key factor in their financial performance in the coming years.

The details

United spent $11.4 billion on fuel last year, and current prices could send that total expense past $20 billion this year. The carrier's plans assume oil hits $175 a barrel and doesn't go back down to $100 until the end of 2027. United will cut capacity in off-peak times and at its Chicago O'Hare hub, and will pull service from Tel Aviv and Dubai. The combined effect of the changes will be about 5 percentage points of capacity, though United plans to restore the full schedule in the fall.

  • In the last three weeks, jet fuel prices have more than doubled.
  • On Friday, Brent crude rose 3.26% to close at $112.19 per barrel, and U.S. oil gained 2.27% to settle at $98.32.

The players

Scott Kirby

CEO of United Airlines.

Ben Smith

CEO of Air France-KLM.

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What they’re saying

“To be clear, nothing changes about our longer-term plans for aircraft deliveries or total capacity for 2027 and beyond, but there's no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can't absorb these fuel costs.”

— Scott Kirby, CEO

“Southeast Asia is much more dependent on fuel coming over the Gulf than Europe is. We can get fuel out of Europe, but when we go to [a] south-east Asian city we're not going to be able to fly the plane back . . . If there's no fuel, you can't fly.”

— Ben Smith, CEO

What’s next

United plans to restore its full flight schedule in the fall, but the airline's ability to do so will depend on whether oil prices come down from their current elevated levels.

The takeaway

The surge in fuel costs is forcing United and other airlines to make difficult decisions about capacity, routes, and investments, underscoring the industry's vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and volatile energy markets. The ability of airlines to adapt and pass on these higher costs will be crucial to their financial performance in the coming years.