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Trump's 'Art of the Deal' Fails to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Decades-old negotiation tactics prove ineffective against Iran's control of critical oil chokepoint
Mar. 16, 2026 at 6:53pm
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After decades of using aggressive negotiation tactics to shift losses onto others, President Trump has run into an adversary that cannot be bullied or bankrupted - the Strait of Hormuz. As the U.S. launches strikes on Iran, the vital oil chokepoint remains closed, threatening a global recession as Trump's 'Art of the Deal' playbook proves useless against Iran's control of the strategic waterway.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil chokepoint, carrying 20-25% of the world's daily oil supply. Its closure due to the conflict with Iran has sent oil prices soaring and raised recession risks, undermining Trump's economic promises to voters.
The details
When Trump launched attacks on Iran, the country responded by mining the strait, firing missiles at tankers, and deploying drones - actions that have effectively closed the waterway despite U.S. efforts to clear it. Even a ceasefire may not immediately reopen the strait, as uncleared mines could keep insurers and tankers away for months. Unlike Trump's usual negotiation targets, Iran has no CEO to bully, no bondholders to threaten, and no shareholders to absorb losses - the strait simply 'is', indifferent to Trump's brand of transactional diplomacy.
- In late February, Trump's envoys conducted indirect nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva and Vienna.
- In early March, Trump launched attacks on Iran alongside Israel, prompting Iran to begin mining the strait and disrupting global oil supply.
- On March 15, Trump demanded that roughly seven countries join a coalition to police the waterway, threatening 'bad futures' for those who refused.
- On March 18-19, U.S. forces executed strikes on Iran's Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iranian oil exports.
The players
Donald Trump
The former U.S. president who built his business and political career on aggressive negotiation tactics, but now faces an adversary in Iran that cannot be bullied or bankrupted.
Iran
The country that has responded to U.S. attacks by mining the Strait of Hormuz, firing missiles at tankers, and deploying drones, effectively closing the vital oil chokepoint.
Strait of Hormuz
A 21-mile-wide chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that carries 20-25% of the world's daily oil supply, and which cannot be restructured or taken into bankruptcy like Trump's previous negotiation targets.
What’s next
The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.
The takeaway
This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.
