Buttigieg, Newsom, AOC Top 2028 Poll in Key Primary State

Former Transportation Secretary leads potential 2028 presidential contenders in New Hampshire survey.

Published on Feb. 27, 2026

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A new poll in New Hampshire, a key early presidential primary state, shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading a field of potential 2028 Democratic candidates, with California Governor Gavin Newsom and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rounding out the top three.

Why it matters

New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary status makes it a crucial bellwether for potential presidential campaigns, and this early poll suggests a shifting of the guard among top Democratic contenders compared to the 2024 election cycle.

The details

The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, surveyed 800 likely Democratic primary voters in the state. It found Buttigieg garnering 27% support, followed by Newsom at 22% and Ocasio-Cortez at 19%. No other potential candidate reached double-digit support in the survey.

  • The poll was conducted from February 10-15, 2026.

The players

Pete Buttigieg

Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation under the Biden administration.

Gavin Newsom

Current Governor of California.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

U.S. Representative for New York's 14th congressional district.

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What they’re saying

“This early poll shows a potential generational shift in the Democratic party, with newer faces like Buttigieg, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez gaining traction.”

— Dante Scala, Professor of Political Science, University of New Hampshire (1010 WCSI)

What’s next

The 2028 presidential election is still over two years away, and much can change between now and then. Political analysts will be closely watching future polling and candidate announcements in the lead-up to the next Democratic primary season.

The takeaway

This New Hampshire poll suggests the Democratic party may be moving in a more progressive direction, with younger, charismatic figures like Buttigieg, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez emerging as potential frontrunners for the 2028 nomination.