Rural Mainstreet Index Reaches Highest Level Since July 2023

Bankers in 10-state region see signs of economic recovery, but concerns remain over recession, trade, and farm equipment sales

Jan. 30, 2026 at 1:07pm

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The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral 50.0 for January, reaching its highest level since July 2023, according to the latest monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. However, more than one-third of bankers indicated their local economy is currently in a recession, and nearly 27% expect recession conditions in the first half of 2026.

Why it matters

The RMI provides a unique snapshot of the rural economy, which is heavily influenced by the agriculture and energy sectors. The survey results offer insights into the challenges and opportunities facing rural communities, including the impact of trade policies, interest rates, and farm incomes on local economic conditions.

The details

The January RMI climbed to 52.0, up from 50.1 in December, with bankers citing concerns over low grain prices, higher input costs, and the impact of tariffs on the agriculture sector. While nearly 40% of bankers support pulling back on tariffs, the region's exports of agriculture goods and livestock fell by 2.4% in the first 10 months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The farm equipment sales index remained weak at 18.8, marking the 29th straight month below growth neutral.

  • The January 2026 RMI was the highest reading since July 2023.
  • The survey was conducted on January 15, 2026.

The players

Ernie Goss, PhD

Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University's Heider College of Business.

Jim Eckert

Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill.

Jeffrey Gerhart

Former Chairman of the Independent Community Bankers Association.

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What they’re saying

“More than one of three bankers, or 34.7%, indicated that their local economy was currently in a recession. Another 26.9% expect their local economy to experience recession conditions in the first half of 2026.”

— Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University's Heider College of Business

“We are still dry in Central Illinois. We probably have sufficient moisture to plant 2026 crops but will need timely rains as subsoil is depleted.”

— Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill.

“Interest rate changes by the Fed should pause for the time being. The lag is 'long and variable,' meaning policymakers must act with foresight. The economy's response isn't immediate, making it challenging to perfectly time monetary policy.”

— Jeffrey Gerhart, Former Chairman of the Independent Community Bankers Association

What’s next

The Federal Reserve's interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, meets January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by .25%.

The takeaway

The Rural Mainstreet Index results highlight the ongoing challenges facing rural communities, including concerns over recession, the impact of trade policies, and weak farm equipment sales. However, the index's climb above growth neutral suggests some signs of economic recovery, underscoring the importance of policymakers' actions in supporting the rural economy.