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USDA Outlook Forum offers early look at 2026 acres and demand
Report includes expected acres planted, yield projections, and demand forecasts for the 2026 crop year
Published on Feb. 25, 2026
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The USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum published a statistical analysis of economic issues in agriculture, including expected acres planted for 2026, national yield projections, and demand forecasts. While these numbers are usually not market movers, they offer insight into what to expect in the March acreage report and the yield estimate the USDA will likely use from May through July. The report also provides a baseline demand outlook for the 2026 crop over the next 18 months.
Why it matters
The USDA's Outlook Forum report is closely watched by traders and farmers as it provides an early glimpse into the supply and demand dynamics for the upcoming crop year. The acreage, yield, and demand projections can influence market prices and help farmers make planting decisions.
The details
The report indicates that soybean acres are expected to increase at the expense of corn acres, likely due to new crop prices not favoring corn and farmers wanting to readjust their crop rotations. Higher fertilizer costs may also keep a lid on corn acres in 2026. Biofuel demand could support soybean prices long-term, and if export pace to China is near normal, soybean demand could support more acres. Overall, total planted acres for all crops were projected slightly lower, but the USDA noted that normal weather throughout the growing season was assumed, which should mean a slight increase in prevent plant acres from last year. The USDA kept ethanol demand flat year over year, and while exports were trimmed slightly, they are still forecasted to be the second-largest export year on record. The report reduced feed demand due to fewer expected acres in 2026, but the animals on feed are unlikely to change year over year, suggesting the feed demand estimate may need to be increased.
- The USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum's statistical analysis was published on Thursday, February 25, 2026.
The players
USDA
The United States Department of Agriculture, the federal agency responsible for developing and executing policies related to agriculture, food, natural resources, and related issues.
Jon Scheve
A grain merchandiser who has been trading corn, soybeans, and other grains for the last 25 years, and who writes a weekly commentary to help farmers learn about futures trading and maximize their farm operations' profits.
What they’re saying
“Going forward, attention will shift to weather and what the national yield for corn and beans will be for this year's crop.”
— Jon Scheve, Grain Merchandiser (ocj.com)
What’s next
The next key events will be the release of the USDA's March acreage report and the yield estimates from May through July, which will provide more clarity on the supply and demand outlook for the 2026 crop year.
The takeaway
The USDA's Outlook Forum report offers an early glimpse into the potential supply and demand dynamics for the 2026 crop year, providing valuable information for traders, farmers, and others in the agricultural industry to consider as they make planting and marketing decisions.
