North Dakota Winter Storm Shifts North, Sparing Bismarck-Mandan

The heaviest snow is now expected along the Highway 2 corridor, with only minor impacts expected in the capital region.

Published on Feb. 15, 2026

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A winter storm that was initially forecast to bring heavy snow to the Bismarck-Mandan area has shifted its trajectory, with the National Weather Service now predicting the greatest impact will be north of Highway 200. While the capital region may still see some snow, the likelihood of 6+ inches has dropped significantly, to between 10-40%. The heaviest snow is now expected along the Highway 2 corridor from Minot to Devils Lake and over to Grand Forks.

Why it matters

This shift in the storm's path is welcome news for Bismarck-Mandan residents, who were bracing for potentially the heaviest snowfall of the season. The updated forecast means less disruption to commutes and daily activities in the capital region, though nearby areas may still see significant accumulation.

The details

The storm system is expected to start as rain in Bismarck-Mandan on Tuesday afternoon before transitioning to snow overnight. There may be some minor impacts on the Wednesday morning commute due to snow and blowing snow, but the capital region is now only looking at a 40-70% chance of 2+ inches of snow, and only a 10-40% chance of 6+ inches.

  • The storm system is expected to arrive in Bismarck-Mandan on Tuesday afternoon.
  • The rain is expected to transition to snow overnight on Tuesday.
  • There may be minor impacts on the Wednesday morning commute due to snow and blowing snow.

The players

National Weather Service in Bismarck

The local office of the National Weather Service that provided the updated forecast information.

Bismarck Bubble

A local weather resource that also reported on the shift in the storm's trajectory.

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What they’re saying

“The greatest impact of this winter snow event is north of Highway 200.”

— National Weather Service in Bismarck

What’s next

The capital region will have a couple more chances for snow through Thursday with an additional clipper system, but the worst of the winter weather is now expected to bypass Bismarck-Mandan.

The takeaway

This shift in the winter storm's path is a relief for Bismarck-Mandan residents, who can now expect less disruption to their daily lives compared to the initial dire forecasts. However, nearby areas along the Highway 2 corridor may still see significant snowfall in the coming days.