Jamestown Area Faces Increased Spring Runoff Risk Due to Frozen Soils

Hydrologist warns of potential for surprising water level rises despite below-average snowfall this winter.

Published on Feb. 21, 2026

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Even with below-average snowfall this winter, the Jamestown area in North Dakota could see more runoff this spring due to frozen soils that are unable to absorb moisture, according to Allen Schlag, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Bismarck. The upper 4 to 5 inches of soil across much of North Dakota are wet and frozen, acting like "asphalt" and preventing any snow melt or rainfall from infiltrating the ground. This could lead to rising water levels in rivers and streams that may surprise residents.

Why it matters

The Jamestown area has historically seen significant spring flooding due to rapid snowmelt and heavy rainfall. While this year's snowpack is below average, the frozen soil conditions mean that any precipitation or rapid warming could still lead to substantial runoff and potential flooding, catching many residents off guard.

The details

The Jamestown area has received only about 11 inches of snow so far this winter, compared to the average of 44 inches. However, the recent warm weather has melted much of that snowpack, leaving the upper layers of soil wet and frozen. Hydrologist Allen Schlag says this frozen "asphalt-like" soil will be unable to absorb any additional moisture, leading to increased runoff and the potential for rising water levels in rivers and streams.

  • The Jamestown area received about 21 inches of snow during the 2024-25 winter season.
  • As of February 20, the Jamestown area has received about 11 inches of snow this winter.
  • Historically, the Jamestown area receives an average of 44 inches of snow each winter.

The players

Allen Schlag

A hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Bismarck.

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What they’re saying

“That's our big risk going forward, and that's going to last until such time as our soils begin to thaw.”

— Allen Schlag, Hydrologist (jamestownsun.com)

“Am I saying that's going to flood? No, I'm not saying that at all. But, it will be absolutely surprising as heck to the average person out there when they see that there's not much snow on the ground, and all of a sudden, the rivers and the streams and everything start rising.”

— Allen Schlag, Hydrologist (jamestownsun.com)

What’s next

Schlag said it will take weeks of daytime highs in the low to mid 30s to lose most of the frost depth in soils, which he estimated could be around 30 inches deep. The National Weather Service and its Climate Prediction Center are calling for a cooler-than-normal spring, which could prolong the risk of spring flooding.

The takeaway

This situation highlights the importance of monitoring soil conditions and snowpack levels, even in years with below-average snowfall, as frozen soils can still lead to significant spring runoff and potential flooding. Residents in the Jamestown area should stay vigilant and prepared for the possibility of unexpected water level rises in the coming months.