Border Crossing Decline Hits North Dakota Businesses Hard

Canadian visitors drop sharply, impacting retailers and tourism in Grand Forks and beyond

Mar. 15, 2026 at 8:58am

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Grand Forks, North Dakota, and other border states are experiencing a significant decline in Canadian visitors, with the Pembina border crossing recording 202,077 fewer passengers in 2025 compared to 2024. This drop in traffic is estimated to have cost North Dakota $41.3 million in lost visitor spending as of October 2025, leaving local businesses and tourism officials searching for solutions.

Why it matters

The decline in Canadian visitors is a major concern for businesses and communities in border states that have long relied on cross-border traffic and spending. The trend highlights the economic interdependence between the U.S. and Canada, and the vulnerability of certain regions to fluctuations in exchange rates and political/economic conditions.

The details

The trend, which began to accelerate in 2025, shows no immediate signs of reversal. Greg Rixen, general manager of Happy Harry's in Grand Forks, has noticed a clear shift in the number of Manitoba license plates around town, with one out of 10 cars now having Manitoba plates compared to one out of three previously. Rixen estimates that 3-5% of Happy Harry's business comes from Canadian customers, and a recent dip in penny wine sales has been attributed to the reduction in Canadian shoppers.

  • In 2025, the Pembina border crossing recorded 202,077 fewer passengers compared to 2024, totaling 376,905 – the lowest number since 2022.
  • In January 2026, the Pembina border crossing saw 8,904 crossings, significantly down from over 12,000 in January 2025 and 2024.
  • The peak years for Canadian border crossings at Pembina were 2012, 2013, and 2014, with over 130,000 passengers crossing in August of each year.

The players

Greg Rixen

The general manager of Happy Harry's in Grand Forks, who has been a keen observer of Canadian traffic for years.

Barry Wilfahrt

The President of the Grand Forks Chamber, who points to the historical correlation between the Canadian and U.S. Dollars as a factor in the decline of Canadian visitors.

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What they’re saying

“You go to Target on a Saturday or Sunday morning and it wouldn't be odd to witness one out of three cars with Manitoba plates on it. Now it might be one out of 10.”

— Greg Rixen, General Manager, Happy Harry's

“When the Canadian dollar falls below 85-80 cents against the U.S. Dollar, traffic from Manitoba noticeably decreases.”

— Barry Wilfahrt, President, Grand Forks Chamber

What’s next

The 2026 North Dakota Travel Industry Conference will address these challenges, bringing together state leaders to discuss potential strategies to attract more Canadian visitors.

The takeaway

The decline in Canadian visitors to border states like North Dakota highlights the economic interdependence between the U.S. and Canada, and the vulnerability of certain regions to fluctuations in exchange rates and political/economic conditions. Businesses and tourism officials will need to explore innovative solutions to mitigate the impact and attract more cross-border traffic.