North Dakota Oil Activity Unlikely to Ramp Up Despite High Prices

Regulators say major oil companies have already set their 2026 budgets and are unlikely to make rapid changes.

Mar. 23, 2026 at 11:20am

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North Dakota's oil and gas industry is not expected to significantly increase drilling activity in response to the recent surge in oil prices, which have reached nearly $100 per barrel. Regulators say the state's oil industry is now dominated by large energy companies whose 2026 budgets have already been set and are unlikely to change in the short term. They expect companies to focus on optimizing existing production rather than investing in new drilling operations.

Why it matters

North Dakota's oil revenue is crucial to the state's budget, so the lack of a production ramp-up in response to high prices is an important development. The state is closely tracking oil prices and their impact on production.

The details

The flat activity levels are partly due to changes in the state's oil industry in recent years, with a series of consolidations leaving North Dakota's oil and gas industry dominated by some of the largest energy companies in the country. These companies are unlikely to make rapid changes to their 2026 budgets. Regulators expect them to look for ways to optimize existing production, such as bringing some of the state's 2,835 inactive wells back online, before considering investments in new drilling operations.

  • Oil prices have been hovering just shy of $100 per barrel.
  • A decade ago, such prices would have prompted a scramble to drill new wells in North Dakota.
  • North Dakota lawmakers are closely tracking the price of oil and the impact on production due to the importance of oil revenue to the state budget.

The players

David Tabor

Senior field operations manager for the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources.

Nathan Anderson

Director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources.

Justin Kringstad

Executive director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

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What they’re saying

“I don't foresee them making rapid changes until there's a price stabilization. Then they'll most likely adjust accordingly.”

— David Tabor, Senior field operations manager

“The longer this goes on, the more the supply that's on the water gets taken up to supply the countries around the globe, and you'll have a shortage. That'll keep prices high until operators adjust their activity levels.”

— Nathan Anderson, Director

“That will be an interesting dynamic that we'll keep a very close eye on.”

— Justin Kringstad, Executive director

What’s next

Regulators don't expect to see significant changes from oil operators in North Dakota until 2027 at the earliest, even if prices remain elevated for a long duration.

The takeaway

North Dakota's oil industry has undergone significant consolidation in recent years, leaving it dominated by large energy companies that are unlikely to rapidly adjust their 2026 budgets in response to the current price surge. This represents a stark departure from the industry's historical boom-and-bust cycle, and highlights the changing dynamics of the state's crucial oil sector.