Cooper Leads Whatley in North Carolina Senate Race

Polls show former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper with an early advantage over ex-GOP Chair Michael Whatley in competitive 2026 contest

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

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Polls give former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper a lead over ex-Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in North Carolina's 2026 race for the U.S. Senate. Cooper won the Democratic nomination in the Tar Heel State's primary election, while Whatley secured the Republican nod. The race is seen as a battleground for control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.

Why it matters

The race is a battleground for the 2026 midterm elections as Republicans try to retain control of Congress. North Carolina backed President Donald Trump by only about 3 percentage points in 2024, making it a top target for Democrats in November. Cooper and Whatley are vying to replace retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who opted not to run again in one of the swing states most evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans.

The details

Cooper has built an early lead in polling, with a 10-point advantage in a recent Change Research survey and a 24-point lead in a TIPP Insights poll. A Harper Polling survey last year also showed Cooper ahead. However, political experts say the race could still be close, as North Carolina has been elusive for Democrats in federal elections despite the party's recent success in gubernatorial races.

  • Cooper and Whatley both easily won their primaries on Tuesday night.
  • The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The players

Roy Cooper

Former Democratic Governor of North Carolina who is the party's nominee for the U.S. Senate race.

Michael Whatley

Former Republican National Committee Chair who is the GOP's nominee for the U.S. Senate race.

Thom Tillis

Retiring Republican Senator from North Carolina whose seat is up for grabs in 2026.

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What they’re saying

“forced to choose now, we would favor former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who is on his way to the Democratic nomination, against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who is also favored to win his party's nomination and has Trump's backing (but he also faces some opposition in his primary, most notably from the very right-wing Michele Morrow, whose primary upset of then-state Superintendent of Public Instruction Catherine Truitt quite possibly cost Republicans the office in 2024).”

— Kyle Kondik, Sabato's Crystal Ball (Newsweek)

What’s next

The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The takeaway

This race in the swing state of North Carolina will be closely watched as Democrats try to flip the Senate seat and Republicans work to maintain their majority. The outcome could have major implications for the balance of power in Congress.