Top Seeds Dominate Early Rounds of NCAA Tournament

Blowout wins by favorites raise questions about parity in college basketball

Mar. 22, 2026 at 2:49pm

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The 2026 NCAA Tournament has seen a high number of dominant performances by top-seeded teams in the early rounds, with the top four seeds in each region going a combined 16-0 in the opening two days. The average margin of victory in the first round was 17.4 points, a tournament record, and 14 games were decided by at least 20 points. Experts attribute this trend to the increasing talent gap between the top programs and mid-major schools, driven in part by the new NIL rules that allow major schools to attract top transfer talent.

Why it matters

The lack of upsets and close games in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament raises questions about the state of parity in college basketball. As top programs are able to stockpile talent through the transfer portal, the gap between the haves and have-nots appears to be widening, potentially making the tournament less unpredictable and exciting for fans.

The details

In the opening two days, the top four seeds in each region went a combined 16-0, with several games decided by wide margins. The average margin of victory in the first round was 17.4 points, the highest ever since the tournament expanded. Fourteen games were decided by at least 20 points, also a tournament record. Experts say the new NIL rules have allowed major programs to raid rosters of mid-major schools, creating a significant talent gap that is difficult for smaller schools to overcome.

  • The 2026 NCAA Tournament is currently underway.

The players

Yaxel Landenberg

A forward for Michigan who was highly coveted in the transfer portal, reportedly turning down a $9 million NIL deal from Kentucky to join the Wolverines.

Josh Schertz

The head coach of Saint Louis, which was one of the rare lower-seeded teams to make it to the round of 32 before being blown out by top-seeded Michigan.

Grant McCasland

The head coach of Texas Tech, who commented on the difficulty for smaller schools to retain top talent due to the resources of major programs.

Nate Oats

The head coach of Alabama, who wondered if he would have been able to keep star player C.J. Massinburg at Buffalo for four seasons under the current transfer rules.

Dan Hurley

The head coach of UConn, who noted that major programs are now able to build rosters of experienced veterans rather than relying on young players.

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What they’re saying

“I think the talent gap at the top is more significant than it was. I think NIL has created that, where just the size and physicality, the differences between the top five or 10 teams and everybody else ... I do think there's a chasm.”

— Josh Schertz, Head Coach, Saint Louis

“These teams that don't have the resources, it's just hard to keep anyone longer than one year. If you're great, it's like, you're in a catch-22. If you play great, you're gone because there's people with more resources.”

— Grant McCasland, Head Coach, Texas Tech

“I'm sure he would've loved to stay and play for me, but it's going to be hard for him to turn down the amount of money he would have been offered.”

— Nate Oats, Head Coach, Alabama

What’s next

As the tournament progresses, it remains to be seen if the trend of dominant performances by top seeds continues or if any Cinderella stories emerge to provide the classic March Madness moments that fans crave.

The takeaway

The 2026 NCAA Tournament has so far been marked by a lack of upsets and close games, with top seeds cruising to blowout victories. Experts attribute this to the growing talent gap between major programs and mid-major schools, fueled by the new NIL rules that allow the biggest schools to attract top transfer talent. This raises questions about the future of parity in college basketball and whether the tournament will become less unpredictable.